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sailingby · 2020年02月04日

问一道题:NO.PZ2020010801000030

问题如下:

If you use a general-to-specific model selection with a test size of a, what is the probability that one or more irrelevant regressors are included when the regressors are uncorrelated?

选项:

解释:

If the regressors are uncorrelated, then their joint distribution has no correlation, and so the probability that one-or-more irrelevant regressors is included is 1 minus the probability that none are. The probability of including a single irrelevant regressor is 1α1 - \alpha, where a is the test size. This is the definition of the size of a test. The probability that no irrelevant regressors are included is (1α)p(1 - \alpha)^p, where p is the number of variables considered.

"one or more irrelevant regressors are included"是指回归包括了不相关的变量Xi?如果H0:bi=0, 那就是犯了第一类错误 Pro(H0被拒绝 | H0正确)=a, 那为什么答案是等于1-a呢?

1 个答案

orange品职答疑助手 · 2020年02月07日

同学你好,这题答案不是1-a,是1-(1-a)^p呀

根据解析:The probability that no irrelevant regressors are included is (1-a)^p ,因此至少有1个无关的regressors被包含的概率是1-(1-a)^p 。而且你看我画出来的这部分,它其实已经说了是1-(1-a)^p 的~