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sion · 2020年01月30日

问一道题:NO.PZ2018091901000054

问题如下:

Neshie Wakuluk is an investment strategist. Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s predictions:

Wakuluk decides to focus on Country Y. Wakuluk makes the following observations:

Observation 3 The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase, with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions.

Based on Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yield curve in the near term to:

选项:

A.

invert.

B.

flatten.

C.

steepen

解释:

C is correct.

The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase (curve is flat to inverted), with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions (i.e., bond yields are declining). The curve will most likely steepen near term, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phase of the business cycle, and be the steepest on the cusp of the initial recovery phase.

解析:

Y国目前的收益率曲线表明,商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平向反方向),债券收益率开始反映出紧缩的状况(债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线在短期内很可能会变陡,与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡保持一致,并在初始复苏阶段的尖端变得最陡。

所以只有C选项正确。

陡峭不是应该在刚恢复的时候吗?收缩到衰退不是应该是变平然后invert?

5 个答案

kathy · 2020年03月05日

还是没懂这道题。紧缩阶段不是应该扁平么

源_品职助教 · 2020年02月23日

抱歉,上述第一段的确出现了一个笔误,应该是央行实施了扩张的货币政策。

源_品职助教 · 2020年02月03日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


因为在 contraction 阶段,一国央行会出手干预,会对该国实施紧缩的货币政策。那么短期利率就会大幅下降,该国的收益率曲线便会变得陡峭。此时预测经济就要向好了。

而且题目问的也是W这个同学预测短期收益率曲线要怎么变。所以这里的 contraction 可以理解为靠后了。一旦央行实行扩张货币政策, contraction 就快结束了。

不客气


-------------------------------
就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!


惠惠 · 2020年02月21日

你的两次回答矛盾啊,之前有个同学提问的,你说央行出手干预,会实施紧缩的货币政策

阿咩amie · 2020年02月22日

回答矛盾,这个阶段应该是扩张的政策,才导致短期利率大幅下降

AshleyGu · 2020年02月01日

我也不懂这题,slowdown stage不应该是inverted吗

sion · 2020年01月31日

已解决,谢谢。

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NO.PZ2018091901000054 问题如下 Neshie Wakuluk is investment strategist. Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s prections:Wakuluk cis to focus on Country Y. Wakuluk makes the following observations:Observation 3 The current yielcurve for Country Y suggests ththe business cycle is in the slowwn phase, with bonyiel starting to reflecontractionary contions.Baseon Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yielcurve in the neterm to: invert. B.flatten. C.steepen C is correct. The current yielurve for Country Y suggests ththe business cycle is in the slowwn phase(curve is flto inverte, with bonyiel starting to reflecontractionarycontions (i.e., bonyiel are clining). The curve will most likelysteepen neterm, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phaseof the business cycle, anthe steepest on the cusp of the initirecoveryphase. 解析Y国目前的收益率曲线表明,商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平向反方向),债券收益率开始反映出紧缩的状况(债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线在短期内很可能会变陡,与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡保持一致,并在初始复苏阶段的尖端变得最陡。所以只有C正确。 在slowwn阶段,因为央行加息或者加准,短期利率很高,yielcurve变平,则下一个阶段可能是降准降息,曲线steepen。但如果slowwn阶段曲线invert了,他降低短期利率至少得先变平,再变陡峭,此题没考虑这种情况

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