问题如下:
Based on Exhibit 1, Olabudo should:
选项:
A.conclude that the inflation predictions are unbiased.
reject the null hypothesis that the slope coefficient equals 1.
reject the null hypothesis that the intercept coefficient equals 0.
解释:
A is correct. If the consensus inflation forecast is unbiased, then the intercept, b0, should equal 0, and the slope coefficient, b1, should equal 1. The t-statistic for the intercept coefficient is 0.5351, which is less than the critical t-value of 2.0, so the intercept coefficient is not statistically different than 0. To test whether the slope coefficient equals 1, the t-statistic is calculated as: t=–1.0968
Because the absolute value of the t-statistic of –1.0968 is less than the critical t-value of 2.0, the slope coefficient is not statistically different than 1. Therefore, Olabudo can conclude that the inflation forecasts are unbiased.
b0 和b1的t统计量,表格中不是给了0.5351和63.6239; 如果直接和t-critial value=2 相比,截距项不能拒绝原假设,但斜率项可以拒绝(63.6239>>2),请问怎么理解呢?