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小蚂蚁苏 · 2020年01月06日

问一道题:NO.PZ201709270100000502

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

问题如下:

2. Based on the regression output in Exhibit 1, the first-differenced series used to run Regression 2 is consistent with:

选项:

A.

a random walk.

B.

covariance stationarity.

C.

a random walk with drift.

解释:

B is correct. The critical t-statistic at a 5% confidence level is 1.98. As a result, neither the intercept nor the coefficient on the first lag of the first-differenced exchange rate in Regression 2 differs significantly from zero. Also, the residual autocorrelations do not differ significantly from zero. As a result, Regression 2 can be reduced to yt = εt with a mean-reverting level of b0/(1 b1) = 0/1 = 0.

Therefore, the variance of yt in each period is Var(εt) = σ2. The fact that the residuals are not autocorrelated is consistent with the covariance of the times series, with itself being constant and finite at different lags. Because the variance and the mean of yt are constant and finite in each period, we can also conclude that yt is covariance stationary.

这道题不太懂,是问差分后的AR是否为协方差稳定吗?那不是应该再做一次新的DF测试?

1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2020年01月06日

同学你好,

你的理解正确,问的就是差分后的方程是一种什么情况。理论上再做DF其实也行。但是因为差分后的方程( yt = εt)特征非常明显,直接能看出来已经满足均值,方差,协方差固定这三个特点,所以直接就可以说差分后的方程是协方差平稳的了。

这道题视频里有讲,如果忘了也可以去复习一下,加油~


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