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粉红豹 · 2020年01月03日

问一道题:NO.PZ201511190100000405

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问题如下:

With regard to Johnson’s comment relating to Garnier’s research analysts, which of the following biases is most likely to be present in the analysts’ data?

选项:

A.

Confirmation bias.

B.

Availability bias.

C.

Self-attribution bias.

解释:

A is correct.

Confirmation bias, a cognitive bias, is the tendency for people to misread evidence as additional support for an initial hypothesis. Confirmation bias is a potential bias for analysts conducting research. It is a form of resolving cognitive dissonance that described the tendency to search for, or interpret, information in a way that confirms the analyst’s prior beliefs. The additional information may not be analyzed in a rigorous way, but it can nevertheless appear to make the judgment or forecast more likely by sharing some of its general characteristics.

老师,答案里的讲解后面几句没太看懂,能帮忙讲解下吗?It is a form of resolving cognitive dissonance that described the tendency to search for, or interpret, information in a way that confirms the analyst’s prior beliefs.

The additional information may not be analyzed in a rigorous way, but it can nevertheless appear to make the judgment or forecast more likely by sharing some of its general characteristics.

1 个答案

企鹅_品职助教 · 2020年01月09日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


resolving, 解决;dissonance 不协调;cognitive dissonance是认知失调的意思;rigorous 严格的。

 

第三句话的意思是说,Confirmation bias是解决认知失调的一种形式,它是以确认分析师自己之前观点的方式搜索或解释信息的倾向。具体来说,Garnier有很多分析师,Johnson看到超过一个分析师支持自己的观点,就提高了风险容忍度,她只看支持自己的,忽略了其他不支持的观点,这就是confirmation bias.

第四句话,额外的信息没有经过严格的分析,而是通过他们的共通性来做判断和预测。这句话中“额外的信息” 在文中指的是Garnier众多分析师的观点。Johnson并没有严格的(或仔细的)去研究Garnier众多分析师的观点来全面地判断自己的投票投资是不是最好的,而是只看了和自己的想法一致观点,就做出了(提高风险容忍度的)判断。


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