问题如下:
7. Which of McFadden’s predictions in Statement 5 is least likely to be correct?
选项:
A.Prediction 1
B.Prediction 2
C.Prediction 3
解释:
A is correct.
Prediction 1 is least likely to be correct. Foreign exchange reserves tend to decline precipitously, not increase, as a currency crisis approaches. Broad money growth in nominal and real terms tends to rise sharply in the two years leading up to a currency crisis, peaking around 18 months before a crisis hits. In the period leading up to a currency crisis, the real exchange rate is substantially higher than its mean level during tranquil periods.
A is correct.
考点:warning signs of currency crisis.
货币危机的预测信号更多的是一种实证检测,也就是人们在外汇市场上观察到了这些现象。
A选项说法错误,外汇储备的下降而非减少才是货币危机的信号。因为外汇储备减少表明国家干预稳定外汇市场的能力下降,危机可能爆发。
注意到,热钱涌入是可能会增加外汇储备,但是只有在外汇储备急剧下降的的时候,货币危机才开始。所以热钱涌入是外汇储备的前一个步骤,单看外汇储备的话,还是当其下降时候才能确认危机的信号。
B与C选项的说法正确。货币的超发为货币的贬值提供了条件,容易引起危机。汇率高于长期均衡也为货币的贬值提供了条件,容易引起危机。
请问可以帮忙翻译一下Prediction 2么?不是太明白