问一道题：NO.PZ2015120204000056

问题如下：

Alicia Maxwell, an analyst for a REIT, is evaluating the potential purchase of a hotel property. She plans to use simulation analysis to estimate the distribution of the property’s annual operating cash flow for the next five years.

Expense Assumptions
Maxwell examines current expenses for the REIT’s other hotel properties and selects the distributions for the simulation of operating expenses and management fees. Maxwell estimates operating expenses to be uniformly distributed between 68% and 70% of revenues and that the property management fee for the hotel is uniformly distributed between 5.9% and 6.1% of total annual revenue.

Maxwell’s distribution assumption for the property management fee in the simulation is based on:

选项：

historical data.

simulation results.

cross-sectional data.

解释：

C is correct. Maxwell uses the distribution of property management fees for the REIT’s other hotel properties to simulate the property management fee. Therefore, the property management fee distribution is based on differences in property management fees across a cross-section of the REIT’s existing hotel properties that are similar to the hotel being analyzed.

A is incorrect because Maxwell’s distribution assumption about the property management fee is not based on historical data for the hotel. The property is new, and therefore Maxwell does not have a history of reliable data for the property management fee to use.

B is incorrect because the property management fee distributional assumption is not based on the results of a simulation but rather is based on cross-sectional data. The property management fee is based on the property management fees for the REIT’s other hotel properties. Once the distributional assumption is made (that is, the statistical distribution and parameters), Maxwell may then incorporate these into the trials for the management fee.