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magico · 2019年12月29日

问一道题:NO.PZ201512181000007202

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问题如下:

In Statement 2, Kynnersley implies that the portfolio:

选项:

A.

is at risk of losing $4,500 each trading day

B.

value is expected to decline by $90,000 or more once in 20 trading days.

C.

has a 5% chance of falling in value by a maximum of $90,000 on a single trading day.

解释:

B is correct. Value at risk is the minimum loss that would be expected a certain percentage of the time over a certain period of time. Statement 2 implies that there is a 5% chance the portfolio will fall in value by $90,000 (= $6,000,000 ×1.5%) or more in a single day. If VaR is measured on a daily basis and a typical month has 20–22 business days, then 5% of the days equates to about 1 day per month or once in 20 trading days.

这题的解释不是很明白,还请再解释一下,谢谢!

1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2019年12月29日

同学你好,
A选项无论是数字还是描述都不正确。C选项,如果从5%的角度去解读VaR的话,那么90,000就是最小损失的概念。因为5%是左尾的概率,越往左,损失越来越大。所以最靠右的VaR就是最小的损失。maximum of $90,000应该改为minimum of 90,000.
B选项90,000数字正确,描述无误,是5%概率下的最小损失。题目中的“once in 20 trading days.”其实就是“one-day”的意思,因为这里面假设一个月有20个交易日,所以每一个交易日(daily)就相当于1/20,也就是once in 20 trading days。这个考法不是很严谨,如果是考试中出现这种题目,会给出一个月按照多少个交易日计算的。

所以这道题了解VaR的描述方式即可,加油。

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