问题如下:
Jacques is the portfolio manager of AB pension and she considers adding PZ Inc. to her portfolio. Previously, she believed the company would have extraordinary growth for 4 years and normal growth thereafter. After carefully considering the characteristics of the company and its competitors, she is wondering what the consequences would be if the duration of the first stage was assumed to be 8 years instead of 4, with all the other assumptions/estimates remaining the same. Which of the following statement is true?
Statement 1: If the H model is used, the total value estimated would increase.
Statement 2: By using DDM, the proportion of the total value of the stock represented by the second stage would not change.
选项:
A.Statement 1.
B.Statement 2.
C.Both of it.
解释:
A is correct.
考点:DDM& H-model
解析:A是正确的。Statement 2错在如果较高的增长率将持续更长的时间,那么股票的价值就会上升。
statement2:两阶段股票价值=高速增长部分的现值+低速增长部分的现值(也就是终值,一般用GGM来计算)。GGM=D1/r-g 第一阶段高速增长时间越长,D1就越大,那么GGM计算出来的终值也就越大。
第一阶段变长,则1)高速增长部分现值增加,2)由于股利高速增长率12%>要求回报率9%,低速增长部分现值也增加,3)股票价值也增加,怎么判断比重变不变呢?