问一道题：NO.PZ201512020800000207

问题如下：

7. Which of McFadden’s predictions in Statement 5 is least likely to be correct?

选项：

Prediction 1

Prediction 2

Prediction 3

解释：

A is correct.

Prediction 1 is least likely to be correct. Foreign exchange reserves tend to decline precipitously, not increase, as a currency crisis approaches. Broad money growth in nominal and real terms tends to rise sharply in the two years leading up to a currency crisis, peaking around 18 months before a crisis hits. In the period leading up to a currency crisis, the real exchange rate is substantially higher than its mean level during tranquil periods.

A is correct.

考点：warning signs of currency crisis.

货币危机的预测信号更多的是一种实证检测，也就是人们在外汇市场上观察到了这些现象。

A选项说法错误，外汇储备的下降而非减少才是货币危机的信号。因为外汇储备减少表明国家干预稳定外汇市场的能力下降，危机可能爆发。

注意到，热钱涌入是可能会增加外汇储备，但是只有在外汇储备急剧下降的的时候，货币危机才开始。所以热钱涌入是外汇储备的前一个步骤，单看外汇储备的话，还是当其下降时候才能确认危机的信号。

B与C选项的说法正确。货币的超发为货币的贬值提供了条件，容易引起危机。汇率高于长期均衡也为货币的贬值提供了条件，容易引起危机。