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HUANGy · 2019年12月22日

问一道题:NO.PZ2015120204000028

问题如下:

DeMolay cautions Kamini: “Remember that when we analyze two time series in regression analysis, we need to ensure that
(1) neither the dependent variable series nor the independent variable series has a unit root, or (2) that both series have a unit root and are not cointegrated.
Unless Condition 1 or Condition 2 holds, we cannot rely on the validity of the estimated regression coefficients.

DeMolay's caution given in Condition 1 is best described as:


选项:

A.

incorrect because only the dependent variable series needs to be tested for the absence of a unit root.

B.

incorrect because only the independent variable series needs to be tested for the absence of a unit root.

C.

correct

解释:

When working with two time series in a regression analysis, both of the series must be tested for the presence of a unit root. If neither series has a unit root, you can safely use linear regression to test the relationship between the two time series.


也就是说存在自相关的问题不光是independent variables, dependent variable同样存在自相关?


如果independent variable 不存在自相关,dependent variable是不是一定不存在?


自相关主要检测的是残差项,这里为什么不提残差项?

1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2019年12月23日

同学你好,

这道题主要的考察点是两个时间序列数据的协整问题,statement 1中说如果两个时间序列数据中都没有unit root,则可以做回归。这个描述是正确的。

这个考点(两组时间序列数据)和一组时间序列数据的序列相关是不同的。这个考点本质是一个多元回归的模型,只不过Y和X这两组数据都是时间序列的数据,所以做回归的前提假设是要么两组时间序列数据都没有unit root(都满足covariance stationary),要么就是都有unit root但是必须协整(co-integrated)。

不要和单独一组时间序列数据的序列相关混淆了(所以不用提残差项)。加油