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让我爱你 · 2019年12月17日

问一道题:NO.PZ2019103001000060

问题如下:

Regarding inter-market trades in general her notes indicate:

IV. Inter-market trades should be assessed based on currency-hedged returns.

V. Anticipated changes in yield spreads are the primary driver of inter-market trades.

VI. Whether a bond offers a relatively attractive return depends on both the portfolio’s base currency and the currency in which the bond is denominated.

Which of Winslow’s statements about inter-market trades is incorrect?

选项:

A.

Statement IV

B.

Statement V

C.

Statement VI

解释:

C is correct.

Winslow’s Statement VI is incorrect. Due to covered interest arbitrage, the relative attractiveness of bonds does not depend on the currency into which they are hedged for comparison. Hence, the ranking of bonds does not depend on the base currency of the portfolio.

A is incorrect because Winslow’s Statement IV is correct. Inter-market trades should be assessed on the basis of returns hedged into a common currency. Doing so ensures that they are comparable. Neither local currency returns nor unhedged returns are comparable across markets because they involve different currency exposures/risks.

B is incorrect because Winslow’s Statement V is correct. The primary driver of inter-market trades is anticipated changes in yield differentials. Over horizons most relevant for active bond management, the capital gains/losses arising from yield movements generally dominate the income component of return (i.e., carry) and rolling down the curve. Hence, expectations with respect to yield movements are the primary driver of inter-market trade decisions.

V. Anticipated changes in yield spreads are the primary driver of inter-market trades. 对该选项的内容有不理。


inter-market trades 不是需要在市场利率稳定的情况下来操作吗?

1 个答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2019年12月18日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


“inter-market trades 不是需要在市场利率稳定的情况下来操作吗?”


这里需要区分一下:Inter-market trades (Inter-market strategies)和Inter-market carry trade的区别。

咱们三级在讲各种投资策略时,比如:

Stable yield curve下的:Buy-and-hold, Carry trade, Sell convexity, Riding the yield curve,

以及Unstable yield curve下的:Duration management, Buy convexity,Barbell/bullet structure

这些策略,都是默认在一国内部进行的。所有的这些策略,如果迁移到国际市场上,就可以统称为Inter-market trades (Inter-market strategies)。哪怕仅仅是买国外债券,也可以归为Inter-market trades。所以Inter-market trades可以有多种利率预期下对应的策略。以上的所有策略都可以在国际市场上完成,可以称为是Inter-market trades(Strategies)

因为基本上这些策略在国内做和Inter-market做都差不多,只有Inter-market carry trade是非常特别,所以我们原版书单独拿出来讲了。但需要区分一下,本题说的Inter-market trades并不是指Inter-market carry trade,而是泛指国际市场投资策略。

我们题目要考察Inter-market carry trade,就会明确说是这个策略的。


关于这句话Anticipated changes in yield spreads are the primary driver of inter-market trades,是原版书给定的结论:



理解上就是:Carry trade只是赚取利率稳定时的息差收益,这个收益相对是比较小的。

而利率变动时,债券的价格会波动,会产生较大的Capital Gain/Capital Loss,这部分收益的影响是占主导地位的。


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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!


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