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wxy · 2019年12月15日

Gordon growth model的适用情况

Kwaza asks Khan to investigate the most appropriate models for valuing utility companies. She tells Khan about the following points mentioned in various research reports on the utilities sector.
Report 1: A resurgence in domestic manufacturing activity will generate long-term growth in earnings and dividends that exceeds the cost of equity.
Report 2: Share repurchases are expected to increase. The report expresses confidence in the forecasts regarding the magnitude and timing of these repurchases.
Report 3: The report forecasts earnings growth of 4.5%. The key growth drivers are increases in population and business creation associated with stable GDP growth of 2.75%.
Q. Which sector report best describes a situation in which the Gordon growth model could be used to value utility stocks?
.Report 1
.Report 2
.Report 3
Solution
B is correct because the Gordon growth model can accurately value companies that are repurchasing shares when the analyst can appropriately adjust the dividend growth rate for the impact of share repurchases.

为什么选REPORT2?

REPORT1不选的原因是因为G>R?  report3不选的原因是因为公司的增长率不能高于GDP的? 

report2中股票回购跟用GGM有什么必然关系?

1 个答案

maggie_品职助教 · 2019年12月18日

1、GGM最重要的假设就是r要大于g,所以A不能用

2、回购股票(现金返还)可以近似看作是一种现金股利。通常一家公司的股息派发政策是固定的,如果某年公司挣钱多了,想多派息就会采取回购而不是增加现金股利。因为如果未来不能保持这种派息率的话,会影响股民的情绪。说回这道题,如果我们知道股份回购的时间金额,就可以更好的估计未来股息的增长率了。因此适用GGM。

3.GGM增长模型假设股息以固定的速度增长,而report
 
3说earning的增长率是increase的。是随每年经济增长而增长。你看这段英文,预测的利润增长率是4.5%,如果想要使用GGM,那么g=4.5%就应该是稳定不变的,但是这里说利润的增长率是随GDP的增长而增长,说明明年的g=4.5%(1+2.75%),
 后年的g=4.5%(1+2.75%)的平方,因此有悖GGM的假设条件。






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