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shirley_hd · 2019年12月03日

问一道题:NO.PZ2019103001000053

问题如下:

Over the next 12 months, Abram expects a stable yield curve; however, Edgarton expects a steepening yield curve, with short-term yields rising by 1.00% and long-term yields rising by more than 1.00%.

Based on her yield curve forecast, Abram recommends to her supervisor changes to the Fund’s holdings using the following three strategies:

Strategy 1: Sell the 3-year bonds, and use the proceeds to buy 10-year bonds.

Strategy 2: Sell the 5-year bonds, and use the proceeds to buy 30-year MBS with an effective duration of 4.75.

Strategy 3: Sell the 10-year bonds, and buy call options on 10-year government bond futures.

Based on Exhibit 1 and Abram’s interest rate expectations, which of the following strategies is expected to perform best over the next 12 months?

选项:

A.

Strategy 1

B.

Strategy 2

C.

Strategy 3

解释:

B is correct.

In a stable yield curve environment, holding bonds with higher convexity negatively affects portfolio performance. These bonds have lower yields than bonds with lower convexity, all else being equal. The 5-year US Treasury has higher convexity than the negative convexity 30-year MBS bond. So, by selling the 5-year Treasury and purchasing the 30-year MBS, Abram will reduce the portfolio’s convexity and enhance its yield without violating the duration mandate versus the benchmark.

Strategy 1对于profit的影响是什么呢?

1 个答案
已采纳答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2019年12月04日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


仅从这道小题的题干看,Strategy 1完全可以增加收益。实际上他就是Riding the yield curve策略。

这道题说是投资12 months,然后在这道题的题干条件下:Stable yield curve、Upward sloping,Strategy 1就是换了一个更长期的债券做Riding the yield curve,这是完全可以的。

所以对于这道小题,选Strategy 1也是OK的。



因为这是原版书一道Case题,在拆分题目的时候,只截取了小题对应的题干,第一段的主题干没有截到,他这道Case有个大前提,就是要求了组合的Duration只能偏离Benchmark 正负0.3:

The Fund’s mandate allows its duration to fluctuate ±0.30 per year from the benchmark duration. The Fund’s duration is currently equal to its benchmark. 

所以如果在原Case的背景下,Strategy 1卖出3年期债券、买入10年期债券,会让组合的Duration偏离Benchmark很多,所以不选strategy 1。

然后看Strategy 2,卖出的债券Duration是4.74、买入的MBS是4.75,就刚好保证了策略变动前后组合的Duration不变。

这道题条件已经按原版书修改了。


-------------------------------
虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!


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