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刘咩咩 · 2019年12月03日

问一道题:NO.PZ2018091702000002

问题如下:

Judy, a financial analyst, met three important clients and talked about their investment strategies separately this morning.

Client 1: I prefer to use long option during the investment, because in my experience long option position gives me excess returns with small risk. I am sure it has low probability of loss and will invest more long option products in the future.

Client 2: I have 25 years of investment experiences. I know that market prices can be affected by emotions of investors, therefore I focus on the buy and sell signals. I trust those analysts who also take price-volume analysis into consideration.

Client 3: I have my own investment strategy, which proves to outperform most investors' strategies: I sell a stock when its price goes up by 15% or when its price goes down by 10%.

Which client least likely support the weak form of efficient market hypothesis?

选项:

A.

Client 1.

B.

Client 2.

C.

Client 3.

解释:

B is correct.

考点:efficient market hypothesis,传统金融学

解析:如果weak form of efficient market hypothesis成立,技术分析是无法获得超额收益的。本题题干指出,要找到哪位客户不支持弱式有效市场假说,也就是这个客户认为技术分析是可以获得超额收益的。 Client 2 关注buy and sell signals和price-volume analysis,这些都是技术分析常用的方法。技术分析所研究的anomaly确实是来源于投资者的非理性决策,非理性的决策比如说追涨杀跌,追涨会使价格持续上涨,杀跌会让价格持续下跌,因此技术分析师可以通过价格趋势找到市场异常。所以选B。

本题常见错误是选Client 3。Client 3对待价格上涨和下跌的态度是不对称的,上涨到15%或下跌到10%卖出,是Loss aversion, loss aversion属于行为金融学范畴。

为什么不选A?


是否可以这么理解,因为市场弱势有效,所以存在行为金融学。且技术分析无效?不能通过技术分析获得超额收益?

1 个答案

企鹅_品职助教 · 2019年12月04日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


不是这样考虑的。

是因为讨论市场是weak form, semi-strong还是strong这种对市场有效性的讨论属于传统金融学范畴,不属于行为金融学。

A和C都是行为金融学,根本没在说传统金融学的事儿,是和EMH无关的。


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