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廖廖酱 · 2019年11月28日

问一道题:NO.PZ2018091706000061

问题如下:

Assume that the DM country has what is considered a low-yield safe haven currency while the EM country has a high-yield currency whose value is more exposed to fluctuations in the global economic growth rate. All else equal, the exchange rate for the EM currency will most likely depreciate if the:


选项:

A.

long-run equilibrium value of the high-yield currency is revised upward 

B.

nominal yield spread between the EM and DM countries increases over time 

C.

expected inflation differential between the EM and DM countries is revised upward 

解释:

All else equal, an increase in the expected inflation differential should lead to depreciation of the EM currency.

解析:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

根据上述公式。所以AB选项错误。

在其它条件相同的情况下,预期通胀率的扩大会加两国的风险溢价之差,从而应会导致新兴市场货币贬值。所以C选项正确。


老师你好,请问下为什么答案C两国之间预期的通货膨胀率扩大会让EM贬值?

1 个答案
已采纳答案

源_品职助教 · 2019年11月28日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


如果逾期通胀增大,那么对于EM国家的关于通胀的风险溢价补偿就增大了。所以等式右边最后一个括号里的内容就变大,但是括号前有个负号。所以等式数值就在变小。也就是DM/EM在变小,这就意味着EM在贬值。


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