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linzhiheng24 · 2019年11月24日

问一道题:NO.PZ201511190100000405

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问题如下:

With regard to Johnson’s comment relating to Garnier’s research analysts, which of the following biases is most likely to be present in the analysts’ data?

选项:

A.

Confirmation bias.

B.

Availability bias.

C.

Self-attribution bias.

解释:

A is correct.

Confirmation bias, a cognitive bias, is the tendency for people to misread evidence as additional support for an initial hypothesis. Confirmation bias is a potential bias for analysts conducting research. It is a form of resolving cognitive dissonance that described the tendency to search for, or interpret, information in a way that confirms the analyst’s prior beliefs. The additional information may not be analyzed in a rigorous way, but it can nevertheless appear to make the judgment or forecast more likely by sharing some of its general characteristics.

Confirmation bias 跟 availability bias要怎么区分?

1 个答案

企鹅_品职助教 · 2019年11月25日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


confirmation bias指的是只注意支持自己观点的证据,忽略不支持的证据。这道题中Johnson看到分析师支持自己的某只股票,就提高了风险容忍度,忽略了市场上可能的其他不支持的观点,所以是confirmation bias.

availability指的是根据一件事情​​出现的难易程度来估计可能性,比如最近发生的趋势,印象更深刻,就更容易在大脑中出现。或者选股票的时候看到电视上经常做广告的公司,觉得自己更熟悉,就没做仔细研究就买了。

confirmation更强调有一个肯定的过程,availability更多的依靠直觉。


-------------------------------
虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!


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