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Ruthlessbaby · 2019年11月20日

问一道题:NO.PZ2019103001000052

问题如下:

Silvia Abram and Walter Edgarton are analysts with Cefrino Investments, which sponsors the Cefrino Sovereign Bond Fund (the Fund). Abram and Edgarton recently attended an investment committee meeting where interest rate expectations for the next 12 months were discussed. The Fund’s mandate allows its duration to fluctuate ±0.30 per year from the benchmark duration. The Fund’s duration is currently equal to its benchmark. Although the Fund is presently invested entirely in annual coupon sovereign bonds, its investment policy also allows investments in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and call options on government bond futures. The Fund’s current holdings of on-the-run bonds are presented in Exhibit 1.


Over the next 12 months, Abram expects a stable yield curve; however, Edgarton expects a steepening yield curve, with short-term yields rising by 1.00% and long-term yields rising by more than 1.00%.

Based on Edgarton’s expectation for the yield curve over the next 12 months, the Fund’s return relative to the benchmark would most likely increase by:

选项:

A.

riding the yield curve

B.

implementing a barbell structure.

C.

shortening the portfolio duration relative to the benchmark.

解释:

C is correct.

If interest rates rise and the yield curve steepens as Edgarton expects, then shortening the Fund’s duration from a neutral position to one that is shorter than the benchmark will improve the portfolio’s return relative to the benchmark. This duration management strategy will avoid losses from long-term interest rate increases.

不是说曲线stable的情况下只有四种策略吗?1、buy and hold 2、riding the yield curve 3、sell convexity 4、carry trade

本题给出的条件满足收益率曲线UPward,并且短期小于长期的呀,为什么不用riding the yield curve ?

3 个答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2020年03月17日

为什么是变动的收益率曲线,就要排除barbell structure呢?


这里是这样,他预测到未来的收益率曲线上升,且长期利率上升幅度更大。

Barbell的策略是现金流集中在短期与长期,因此,Barbell组合对短期、长期利率的敏感度很大。这样的话,长期利率上升,Barbell组合的长期债券价值下跌,Barbell会遭受较大的亏损。

因此在本题的利率预期下,我们不能选择Barbell。


如果预测的利率曲线变动是长期利率下降,我们可以选择Barbell,因为Barbell组合的债券分布在短期、长期,长期利率下降,Barbell组合中的长期债券价值上升,因此受益。

这样的话,我们先判断收益率曲线是如何变动,然后看曲线的变动对中期、长期债券的影响是如何的,然后再判断是Barbell表现更优,还是Bullet型组合表现更优。

deirdreann · 2019年11月26日

如果多加条件stable yi'eld curve和u'pward sloping是不是可以选择A

发亮_品职助教 · 2019年12月01日

对的,这就是riding the yield curve的两个前提条件

发亮_品职助教 · 2019年11月20日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


这是原版书后面的题,题干是给了2个人的利率预期:

Over the next 12 months, Abram expects a stable yield curve; however, Edgarton expects a steepening yield curve, with short-term yields rising by 1.00% and long-term yields rising by more than 1.00%.

Abram同学预期Stable yield curve;Edgarton同学预期是Steepening yield curve,短期利率上涨1%,长期利率上涨超过1%。

然后题干问的是基于Edgarton同学的利率预期采用哪种策略。因为是变动的收益率曲线,所以直接排除A/B,选择C,降低组合的Duration。


-------------------------------
就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!


pepperhyp · 2020年03月15日

为什么是变动的收益率曲线,就要排除barbell structure呢?

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NO.PZ2019103001000052 ST和LT都增加的时候,short barbell 不是可以获利吗?

2021-09-03 16:22 1 · 回答

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NO.PZ2019103001000052 implementing a barbell structure. shortening the portfolio ration relative to the benchmark. C is correct. If interest rates rise anthe yielcurve steepens Earton expects, then shortening the Funs ration from a neutrposition to one this shorter ththe benchmark will improve the portfolio’s return relative to the benchmark. This ration management strategy will avoilosses from long-term interest rate increases. 如果短期利率变低,长期利率不变,是不是也可以ring the yielcurve?

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