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良爱洳 · 2019年11月17日

问一道题:NO.PZ2018091702000009

问题如下:

Linda is a hedge fund manager with excellent record of performance. She owes the success to her team, which is full of experienced experts.  Last year, her fund suffered a severe loss due to economic policy changes, but she believes the investment strategy is still successful.

The team usually has a meeting every Monday to discuss the fund and market situation. Linda refuses the team's advice about adjusting the portfolio, and tells them she believes the strategy is fine and the fund’s return will revert very soon.

Which one least supports that she shows illusion of control bias?

选项:

A.

Her refuse of the team's analysis.

B.

The regular team meeting.

C.

Her thoughts on portfolio strategy and portfolio performance.

解释:

B is correct.

考点illusion of control bias的表现

解析:Illusion of control bias 说的是人们觉得自己可以控制结果。尽管经济政策发生变化,Linda的基金业绩已经下滑,超出了她的控制,但她仍然坚持当前投资策略反对团队的建议illusion of control的表现。

每周开一次会说明Linda是愿意听别人的意见和反馈的所以B选项正确。

想请问下illusion of control bias与overconfidence bias的区别? 这道题中的人物是否能被认定为具有overconfidence bias?

1 个答案
已采纳答案

企鹅_品职助教 · 2019年11月18日

同学你好,illusion of control可能会导致overconfidence。 illusion of control 是觉得自己可以控制结果。 overconfidence对自己非常自信,一般表现为self-attibution (把成功归功自己,把失败推给别人) 或illusion of knowlege (以为自己知道的比别人多。比如自己从事医药工作,就买医药公司股票,以为自己对这个行业更了解)。 这道题也可以认为这个人有overconfidence.