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Xiaoguo · 2019年11月13日

问一道题:NO.PZ2018091706000061

问题如下:

Assume that the DM country has what is considered a low-yield safe haven currency while the EM country has a high-yield currency whose value is more exposed to fluctuations in the global economic growth rate. All else equal, the exchange rate for the EM currency will most likely depreciate if the:


选项:

A.

long-run equilibrium value of the high-yield currency is revised upward 

B.

nominal yield spread between the EM and DM countries increases over time 

C.

expected inflation differential between the EM and DM countries is revised upward 

解释:

All else equal, an increase in the expected inflation differential should lead to depreciation of the EM currency.

解析:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

根据上述公式。所以AB选项错误。

在其它条件相同的情况下,预期通胀率的扩大会加两国的风险溢价之差,从而应会导致新兴市场货币贬值。所以C选项正确。


请问如何结合共识理解这道题, 谢谢。

4 个答案
已采纳答案

源_品职助教 · 2019年11月14日

在实务中,real yield spread 是很难被观察到的。这时候如果通胀不厉害,人们就倾向于用NOMIANAL yield spread 去做代替。

源_品职助教 · 2019年11月14日

我上述解答的第一段结论是EM升值,而题目要选的是EM贬值。所以B是不对的。只有C对。

Xiaoguo · 2019年11月13日

@刘哲源品职助教,老师您好。还有一个疑问:B选项中,说的是 norminal yield spread  增大,而公式中是 real yield spread ,  请问根据B选项, 如何推导出real yield spread 也增加了?谢谢。

如果无法从B选项推导, 那B选项为何是错误答案呢?谢谢。

源_品职助教 · 2019年11月13日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


如果把标价写作DM/EM的模式,那么依据B选项的意思,公式右边第一个括号内数值应该增大,所以可以判断出EM在升值,所以B不对。

如果把标价写作DM/EM的模式,那么依据C选项的意思,公式右边第一个括号内数值应该增大,加上括号前的负号,所以可以判断出EM在贬值,所以C正确。

 


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