问题如下图：
选项：
A. 
B. 
C. 
解释：
理解经济不好违约上升（default spread 增加），但不理解题目公式显示default spread和Excess Return是正向关系。如果是正向关系，那表示default spread越大，excess return（超额收益) 越大。
NO.PZ2015120204000023 问题如下 Excess stock market returnt=a0+a1fault sprea−1+a2Term sprea−1+a3Pres party mmyt−1+etExcess\ stock\ market\ return_t=a_0+a_1fault\ sprea{t-1}+a_2Term\ sprea{t-1}+a_3Pres\ party\ mmy_{t-1}+e_tExcess stock market returnt=a0+a1fault sprea−1+a2Term sprea−1+a3Pres party mmyt−1+etfault spreis equto the yielon Bbon minus the yielon Abon. Term spreis equto the yielon a 10-yeconstant-maturity US Treasury inx minus the yielon a 1-yeconstant-maturity US Treasury inx. Pres party mmy is equto 1 if the US Presint is a member of the mocratic Party an0 if a member of the RepublicParty.The regression is estimatewith 431 observations.Exhibit 1.Multiple Regression OutputWith respeto the fault sprea the estimatemol incates thwhen business contions are: A.strong, expecteexcess returns will higher. B.weak, expecteexcess returns will lower. C.weak, expecteexcess returns will higher. C is correct.The fault spreis typically larger when business contions are poor, i.e., a greater probability of fault the borrower. The positive sign for fault spre(see Exhibit 1) incates thexpectereturns are positively relateto fault sprea, meaning thexcess returns are greater when business contions are poor. 这个系数正3.4和经济情况weak还是strong是不是没什么关系？weak或者strong有什么说法吗
NO.PZ2015120204000023 老师 从直观的经济层面去理解 是没问题的 但是从题意去看 a1是正的 说明自变量和因变量是正相关 不应该选C啊？
NO.PZ2015120204000023 老师好，在这个题目里面还提到了t-statistic和p-value，这是代表什么意思呢？对这个题目的分析判断有影响吗？谢谢
NO.PZ2015120204000023 The positive sign for fault spre(see Exhibit 1) incates thexpectereturns are positively relateto fault sprea, meaning thexcess returns are greater when business contions are poor. 老师好，关于解析中的这句话，前半句我理解的，因为coefficient是正数，所以正相关。但是为何正相关就可以推导出“excess returns are greater when business contions are poor.”呢？是从这个公式里面看出来的吗？谢谢
请问，经济条件不好的时候fault sprea大大是不是和下面的表述矛盾了fault spreis equto the yielon Bbon minus the yielon Abon. 经济不好的时候Abon的yiel是更大么？那yielon Bbon-yielon Abon不是变小了么？
