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Chris · 2019年10月29日

问一道题:NO.PZ2018091702000033

问题如下:

Gerhard Ludwigs founded ABC Innovations (ABC), a biotech company dedicated to small cell lung cancer research. For the past two years, ABC has been dedicated to Project M, an effort directed at developing a drug for the treatment of relapses in small cell lung cancer. Project M has delayed its Phase Two trials twice. Published results from Phase One trials have raised some concerns regarding the drug. In its last two quarterly investors’ conference calls, ABC’s CEO was very cautious in discussing expectations for Project M. ABC’s stock price decreased by over 20 percent during the past six months. Gerber believes that the research setbacks are temporary because of ABC’s past success with projects. He expects that ABC will begin Phase Two within a year, and also believes that once Project M goes into Phase Two, ABC’s stock price should reach a new 52- week high of CHF 80.

Indicate which bias is illustrated by Gerber’s focus on the achievement of a 52-week high of CHF 80. Discuss how Gerber could have mitigated its impact.

选项:

解释:

Gerber demonstrated anchoring bias by placing high hope in ABC stock reaching a new 52-week high of CHF 80. Anchoring is an information-processing bias which influences the way people estimate probabilities. When required to estimate a value with unknown magnitude, people generally begin by envisioning some initial default number  an "anchor"  which they then adjust up or down to reflect subsequent information and analysis. Despite setbacks and new information, Gerber did not adjust his view of CHF 80, but continued to cling to this anchor or belief even after reviewing the chief scientist’s report. He perceived new information through a warped lens; thus, the decision making deviated from rational reasoning.

To overcome anchoring bias, Gerber should consciously ask questions that may reveal an anchoring and adjustment bias: "Am I holding on to this stock based on rational analysis, or am I trying to attain a price that I am anchored to, such as the purchase price or a high water mark?" He should look at the basis for his decision to hold ABC to determine if it is anchored to a price target (a new 52-week high) or based on an objective, rational view of the company’s fundamentals. Gerber should have periodically reviewed his decision making process to determine if his analysis of ABC’s prospects was appropriate, focusing more on the company’s fundamentals rather than the price target.

为什么这道题的答案不是representativeness bias


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企鹅_品职助教 · 2019年10月29日

题目问的是“Indicate which bias is illustrated by Gerber’s focus on the achievement of a 52-week high of CHF 80”, 指出Gerber 专注于 CHF80 这个数字表现出了哪个bias. 

锚定数字都在题干中给出了,所以anchoring比representativeness更适合。

anchoring强调一个初始值锚定数字, 而不根据新信息作出调整。题目中说虽然有setback, 但是Gerber看了report后没有根据新信息作出调整,还是把期望锚定在“CHF80”这个数字上,因此是anchoring bias。

这道题是Reading 8第5题,同学也可以去听听李老师的讲解。

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NO.PZ2018091702000033问题如下 LuGerber recently became the chief investment officer for the Luigs Family Charity, a misize private fountion in SwitzerlanGerharLuigs founAInnovations (ABC), a biotecompany cateto small cell lung cancer research. For the past two years, Ahbeen cateto ProjeM, effort recteveloping a ug for the treatment of relapses in small cell lung cancer. ProjeM hlayeits Phase Two trials twice. Publisheresults from Phase One trials have raisesome concerns regarng the ug. In its last two quarterly investors’ conferencalls, ABC’s CEO wvery cautious in scussing expectations for ProjeM. ABC’s stopricreaseover 20 percent ring the past six months. Gerber believes ththe researsetbacks are temporary because of ABC’s past success with projects. He expects thAwill begin Phase Two within a year, analso believes thonProjeM goes into Phase Two, ABC’s stoprishoulreaa new 52- week high of CHF 80. Incate whibiis illustrateGerber’s focus on the achievement of a 52-week high of CHF 80. scuss how Gerber coulhave mitigateits impact. Gerber monstrateanchoring biplacing high hope in Astoreaching a new 52-week high of CHF 80. Anchoring is an information-processing biwhiinfluences the wpeople estimate probabilities. When requireto estimate a value with unknown magnitu, people generally begin envisioning some initifault number — an \"anchor\" — whithey then aust up or wn to reflesubsequent information ananalysis. spite setbacks annew information, Gerber not aust his view of CHF 80, but continueto cling to this anchor or belief even after reviewing the chief scientist’s report. He perceivenew information through a warpelens; thus, the cision making viatefrom rationreasoning. To overcome anchoring bias, Gerber should consciously ask questions thmreveanchoring anaustment bias: \"Am I holng on to this stobaseon rationanalysis, or I trying to attain a prithI anchoreto, suthe purchase prior a high water mark?\" He shoullook the basis for his cision to holAto termine if it is anchoreto a pritarget (a new 52-week high) or baseon objective, rationview of the company’s funmentals. Gerber shoulhave periocally reviewehis cision making process to termine if his analysis of ABC’s prospects wappropriate, focusing more on the company’s funmentals rather ththe pritarget. 1、跳出这道题出在processing bias的部分,这个人是不是也犯了confirmation bias?因为他一直在忽略negative information,坚持认为实验会成功,不断在自我加强他的判断。2、另外,如果在考试中,光看题面的话,感觉也不好区分是belief perseveranbi还是 processing bias啊,感觉犯了多种bias,脑回路对不上出题人的思路咋办

2022-04-12 09:53 1 · 回答

NO.PZ2018091702000033 GerharLuigs founAInnovations (ABC), a biotecompany cateto small cell lung cancer research. For the past two years, Ahbeen cateto ProjeM, effort recteveloping a ug for the treatment of relapses in small cell lung cancer. ProjeM hlayeits Phase Two trials twice. Publisheresults from Phase One trials have raisesome concerns regarng the ug. In its last two quarterly investors’ conferencalls, ABC’s CEO wvery cautious in scussing expectations for ProjeM. ABC’s stopricreaseover 20 percent ring the past six months. Gerber believes ththe researsetbacks are temporary because of ABC’s past success with projects. He expects thAwill begin Phase Two within a year, analso believes thonProjeM goes into Phase Two, ABC’s stoprishoulreaa new 52- week high of CHF 80. Incate whibiis illustrateGerber’s focus on the achievement of a 52-week high of CHF 80. scuss how Gerber coulhave mitigateits impact. Gerber monstrateanchoring biplacing high hope in Astoreaching a new 52-week high of CHF 80. Anchoring is information-processing biwhiinfluences the wpeople estimate probabilities. When requireto estimate a value with unknown magnitu, people generally begin envisioning some initifault number — \"anchor\" — whithey then aust up or wn to reflesubsequent information ananalysis. spite setbacks annew information, Gerber not aust his view of CHF 80, but continueto cling to this anchor or belief even after reviewing the chief scientist’s report. He perceivenew information through a warpelens; thus, the cision making viatefrom rationreasoning. To overcome anchoring bias, Gerber shoulconsciously ask questions thmreveanchoring anaustment bias: \"I holng on to this stobaseon rationanalysis, or I trying to attain a prithI anchoreto, suthe purchase prior a high water mark?\" He shoullook the basis for his cision to holAto termine if it is anchoreto a pritarget (a new 52-week high) or baseon objective, rationview of the company’s funmentals. Gerber shoulhave periocally reviewehis cision making process to termine if his analysis of ABC’s prospects wappropriate, focusing more on the company’s funmentals rather ththe pritarget. CHF 80是什么指数?在前文中并没有一开始提到这个数字,而是在最后一句提到了。怎么会是anchoring呢?

2021-05-15 14:03 1 · 回答

Gerber monstrateanchoring biplacing high hope in Astoreaching a new 52-week high of CHF 80. Anchoring is information-processing biwhiinfluences the wpeople estimate probabilities. When requireto estimate a value with unknown magnitu, people generally begin envisioning some initifault number — \"anchor\" — whithey then aust up or wn to reflesubsequent information ananalysis. spite setbacks annew information, Gerber not aust his view of CHF 80, but continueto cling to this anchor or belief even after reviewing the chief scientist’s report. He perceivenew information through a warpelens; thus, the cision making viatefrom rationreasoning. To overcome anchoring bias, Gerber shoulconsciously ask questions thmreveanchoring anaustment bias: \"I holng on to this stobaseon rationanalysis, or I trying to attain a prithI anchoreto, suthe purchase prior a high water mark?\" He shoullook the basis for his cision to holAto termine if it is anchoreto a pritarget (a new 52-week high) or baseon objective, rationview of the company’s funmentals. Gerber shoulhave periocally reviewehis cision making process to termine if his analysis of ABC’s prospects wappropriate, focusing more on the company’s funmentals rather ththe pritarget. 理解确切数字选anchoring,可以mitigate所以不选overconfince。但是文中有提到because of ABC’s past success with projects,是否也可以理解有部分过去经验推断representativeness?

2021-02-07 10:05 1 · 回答

Anchoring bias不是指最初锚定一个错误的数字,后来在错误的数字上下波动吗?题目问的是Gerber认为最后股价能到达CHF80是什么bias。哪里体现了了最初锚定的是CHF 80呢?还是感觉是overconfince.

2019-10-21 18:49 1 · 回答