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eee · 2019年06月02日

下午mock 26题



In regard to the anticipated currency movements related to the Spanish packaging company investment, Fournier told Testa that HNW was forecasting that the euro was likely to appreciate against the US dollar in the next six months.

Testa agreed with HNW’s assessment of the future course of the USD/EUR exchange rate. His conclusion was derived from assessing various analysts’ reports and was centered on the following three reasons:

  1. real interest rates were higher in euro-based countries,
  2. the potential default of several euro-based countries from their excessive debt loads would lead to strong support measures from the IMF and the European Central Bank, and
  3. the US balance of trade deficit with euro-based countries had continued to decline in the past several years and was expected to continue to decline.




Q. Which of Testa’s reasons for the future course of the USD/EUR exchange rate in 2009 is mostconsistent with HNW’s assessment?

  1. Reason 1
  2. Reason 2
  3. Reason 3


想问下reason1 什么期间内利率高的货币升值,多长算long term,long term 是不是认为利率高的货币贬值?

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Shimin_CPA税法主讲、CFA教研 · 2019年06月02日

这道题目是预测欧元在next six months会升值,6个月不能当作是长期。

long term没有具体的定义。在利率平价理论interest rate parity中,长期是天下大同的,所以利率高的国家,汇率预期降低。也就是说,在均衡状态下,无论投资者选择以本币投资于本国市场或是将相等金额的本币转成外币投资在国外市场,在相同的投资期限下,两者最终获得的以本币计价的收益相同。这套理论有两个前提条件,一是均衡状态,也就是天下大同;二是时间长度是远期,而非近期。

所以这道题不适用这套理论。这不矛盾的,因为短期投资者会被高利率国家吸引,高利率国家货币升值,但是长期高利率国家的增长红利消失,资金撤出高利率国家,那么这个国家货币就会贬值。

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