问一道题：NO.PZ201601050100000204 第4小题 [ CFA III ]

NO.PZ201601050100000204问题如下Guten Investments GmbH, basein Germany anusing the EUR its reporting currency, is asset management firm proving investment services for lochigh net worth aninstitutioninvestors seeking internationexposures. The firm invests in the Swiss, UK, anUS markets, after concting funmentresearin orr to seleinviinvestments. Exhibit 1 presents recent information for exchange rates in these foreign markets.In prior years, the correlation between movements in the foreign-currenasset returns for the US nominateassets anmovements in the exchange rate westimateto +0.50. After analyzing globfinancimarkets, Konstanze Ostermann, a portfolio manager Guten Investments, now expects ththis correlation will increase to +0.80, although her forecast for foreign-currenasset returns is unchangeOstermann believes thcurrenmarkets are efficient anhenthlong-run gains cannot achievefrom active currenmanagement, especially after netting out management antransaction costs. She uses this philosophy to gui heing cisions for her scretionary accounts, unless instructeotherwise the client.Ostermann is aware, however, thsome investors holalternative view on the merits of active currenmanagement. Accorngly, their portfolios have fferent investment guilines. For these accounts, Guten Investments employs a currenspecialist firm, Umlauf Management, to provi currenoverlprograms specific to eaclient‘s investment objectives. For most heing strategies, Umlauf Management velops a market view baseon unrlying funmentals in exchange rates. However, when recteclients, Umlauf Management uses options ana variety of trang strategies to unbune all of the various risk factors (the -Greeks-) antra them separately.Ostermann concts annureview for three of her clients angathers the summary information presentein Exhibit 2.4. The active currenmanagement approathUmlauf Management is least likely to employ is baseon:A.volatility trang.B.technicanalysis.C.economic funmentals. B is correct.Umlauf velops a market view baseon unrlying funmentals in exchange rates (economic funmentapproach). When recteclients, Umlauf uses options ana variety of trang strategies to unbune all of the various risk factors antras them separately (a volatility trang approach). A market technicapproawoulentail forming a market view baseon technicanalysis (i.e., a belief thhistoricprices incorporate all relevant information on future primovements anthsumovements have a tennto repeat).A is incorrebecause, in using options ana variety of trang strategies to unbune all of the various risk factors antra them separately, Umlauf is likely to periocally employ volatility trang-basecurrenstrategies.C is incorrebecause, in veloping a market view baseon unrlying funmentals in exchange rates, Umlauf es utilize economic funmentals approach.中文解析Umlauf 基于汇率的基本原理形成了一种市场观点，这是一种基于经济基本面的方法。Umlauf使用期权和各种交易策略将所有各种风险因素分开进行交易，这是一种基于波动率的交易方法。没有用到的是技术分析法，例如相信历史价格包含了未来价格走势的所有相关信息，并且这种走势有重复的趋势等。 技术分析法在哪里提到了，好几个题都遇到了，但是，没注意到在框架图什么位置