问题如下图:
选项:
A.
B.
C.
解释:
during the first 4 years为什么不是:0.15%+99.85%*0.25%+99.85%*99.75%*0.35%+
99.85%*99.75%*99.65%*0.5%?---何老师上课讲过during是要用这个加法公式,而through 某年才用题目答案的公式呀?
NO.PZ2019011002000022问题如下 BonC is a five-yeinvestment-gra bon The information above its hazarrate is shown in the table below: Baseon the information above, the probability of the company fault on the bonring the first 4 years is closest to: 0.15% 1.24% 0.50% B is correct考点对Hazarrate的理解解析由表格可以知道第一年存活的概率为100%-0.15%=99.85%第二年、第三年、第四年存活的概率分别为100%-0.25% = 99.75%100%-0.35% = 99.65%100%-0.50% = 99.50%因此,该债权从第一年存活至第四年的概率为99.85%×99.75%×99.65%×99.50%=98.7555%;因此在这四年里,违约的概率为1-98.7555%=1.24%第一年是0.15%,第二年是(1-0.15%)*0.25%,以此类推后加总
NO.PZ2019011002000022 问题如下 BonC is a five-yeinvestment-gra bon The information above its hazarrate is shown in the table below: Baseon the information above, the probability of the company fault on the bonring the first 4 years is closest to: 0.15% 1.24% 0.50% B is correct考点对Hazarrate的理解解析由表格可以知道第一年存活的概率为100%-0.15%=99.85%第二年、第三年、第四年存活的概率分别为100%-0.25% = 99.75%100%-0.35% = 99.65%100%-0.50% = 99.50%因此,该债权从第一年存活至第四年的概率为99.85%×99.75%×99.65%×99.50%=98.7555%;因此在这四年里,违约的概率为1-98.7555%=1.24% 为什么不是用1-前四年都不违约但第五年违约的概率
NO.PZ2019011002000022 问题如下 BonC is a five-yeinvestment-gra bon The information above its hazarrate is shown in the table below: Baseon the information above, the probability of the company fault on the bonring the first 4 years is closest to: 0.15% 1.24% 0.50% B is correct考点对Hazarrate的理解解析由表格可以知道第一年存活的概率为100%-0.15%=99.85%第二年、第三年、第四年存活的概率分别为100%-0.25% = 99.75%100%-0.35% = 99.65%100%-0.50% = 99.50%因此,该债权从第一年存活至第四年的概率为99.85%×99.75%×99.65%×99.50%=98.7555%;因此在这四年里,违约的概率为1-98.7555%=1.24% 老师您好,请问下hazarrate是表示在有条件的情况下的违约概率,那比如3=0.35%意思就是第一年第二年没有违约,第三年违约的概率是0.35%,没错吧?假设题目问在第四年的违约概率是多少,是不是不用计算直接选0.5%就可以了?
NO.PZ2019011002000022 问题如下 BonC is a five-yeinvestment-gra bon The information above its hazarrate is shown in the table below: Baseon the information above, the probability of the company fault on the bonring the first 4 years is closest to: 0.15% 1.24% 0.50% B is correct考点对Hazarrate的理解解析由表格可以知道第一年存活的概率为100%-0.15%=99.85%第二年、第三年、第四年存活的概率分别为100%-0.25% = 99.75%100%-0.35% = 99.65%100%-0.50% = 99.50%因此,该债权从第一年存活至第四年的概率为99.85%×99.75%×99.65%×99.50%=98.7555%;因此在这四年里,违约的概率为1-98.7555%=1.24% 老师,没太明白,如果问前四年内违约的概率,为什么都要用四年的不违约的概率相乘呢,没太绕过来这个弯,请老师帮忙梳理一下
NO.PZ2019011002000022 英文表达如何区分是第4年违约(前三年不违约,只在第4年违约) or 前4年内违约(如本题答案1-前4年都不违约的概率)