想问下老师，cfa体系里是不是默认长期投资股票是会大概率增值的？----一棵在中国a股的韭菜
问题如下图：
选项：
A. 
B. 
C. 
解释：
NO.PZ2018110601000007 问题如下 The Refamily hthe investable assets of $1.2 million. Tom, the portfolio manager of the Refamily, fin tha portfolio of 70% globequities an30% bon reflects appropriate balanof expectereturn anrisk for the Rewith respeto a 25-yetime horizon for the morately important goals. Tom follows a goal-baseapproato asset allocation anoffers three possible portfolios to consir.The Reexpress a high probability of success to funa family fountion in 25 years, whihestimatepresent value of $400,000. Whiportfolio best meets the Re’ goto funthe family fountion? A.Portfolio 1 B.Portfolio 2 C.Portfolio 3 B is correct.考点goal-baseapproach.解析Portfolio 1中现金和债券占比过高，而family fountion有长达25年的实现期限，所以A可以排除。另一方面，family fountion的实现意愿为high probability of success ， 重要程度较高 ，但不是最高程度的，因此可以承担一定风险。 Portfolio 2相比3股票的占比更高，因此有一定的价值成长空间。而Portfolio 3中hee fun比最高，风险最大，对于 fountion的成功概率会有影响。 可以拿25年，IH很长，Risk tolerance很高，不应该选收益最高的吗？HF收益应该比equity更高吧？
NO.PZ2018110601000007问题如下The Refamily hthe investable assets of $1.2 million. Tom, the portfolio manager of the Refamily, fin tha portfolio of 70% globequities an30% bon reflects appropriate balanof expectereturn anrisk for the Rewith respeto a 25-yetime horizon for the morately important goals. Tom follows a goal-baseapproato asset allocation anoffers three possible portfolios to consir.The Reexpress a high probability of success to funa family fountion in 25 years, whihestimatepresent value of $400,000. Whiportfolio best meets the Re’ goto funthe family fountion?A.Portfolio 1B.Portfolio 2C.Portfolio 3B is correct.考点goal-baseapproach.解析Portfolio 1中现金和债券占比过高，而family fountion有长达25年的实现期限，所以A可以排除。另一方面，family fountion的实现意愿为high probability of success ， 重要程度较高 ，但不是最高程度的，因此可以承担一定风险。 Portfolio 2相比3股票的占比更高，因此有一定的价值成长空间。而Portfolio 3中hee fun比最高，风险最大，对于 fountion的成功概率会有影响。为什么此处allocation可以考虑hee fun不是说它不属于asset class吗？
NO.PZ2018110601000007问题如下The Refamily hthe investable assets of $1.2 million. Tom, the portfolio manager of the Refamily, fin tha portfolio of 70% globequities an30% bon reflects appropriate balanof expectereturn anrisk for the Rewith respeto a 25-yetime horizon for the morately important goals. Tom follows a goal-baseapproato asset allocation anoffers three possible portfolios to consir.The Reexpress a high probability of success to funa family fountion in 25 years, whihestimatepresent value of $400,000. Whiportfolio best meets the Re’ goto funthe family fountion? A.Portfolio 1 B.Portfolio 2 C.Portfolio 3 B is correct.考点goal-baseapproach.解析Portfolio 1中现金和债券占比过高，而family fountion有长达25年的实现期限，所以A可以排除。另一方面，family fountion的实现意愿为high probability of success ， 重要程度较高 ，但不是最高程度的，因此可以承担一定风险。 Portfolio 2相比3股票的占比更高，因此有一定的价值成长空间。而Portfolio 3中hee fun比最高，风险最大，对于 fountion的成功概率会有影响。什么条件下，会选择hee fun比较大的portfolio？
NO.PZ2018110601000007问题如下The Refamily hthe investable assets of $1.2 million. Tom, the portfolio manager of the Refamily, fin tha portfolio of 70% globequities an30% bon reflects appropriate balanof expectereturn anrisk for the Rewith respeto a 25-yetime horizon for the morately important goals. Tom follows a goal-baseapproato asset allocation anoffers three possible portfolios to consir.The Reexpress a high probability of success to funa family fountion in 25 years, whihestimatepresent value of $400,000. Whiportfolio best meets the Re’ goto funthe family fountion? A.Portfolio 1 B.Portfolio 2 C.Portfolio 3 B is correct.考点goal-baseapproach.解析Portfolio 1中现金和债券占比过高，而family fountion有长达25年的实现期限，所以A可以排除。另一方面，family fountion的实现意愿为high probability of success ， 重要程度较高 ，但不是最高程度的，因此可以承担一定风险。 Portfolio 2相比3股票的占比更高，因此有一定的价值成长空间。而Portfolio 3中hee fun比最高，风险最大，对于 fountion的成功概率会有影响。The Reexpress a high probability of success to funa family fountion in 25 years, whihestimatepresent value of $400,000不是应该保证这个是400000/1.2 million=33%，也就是说至少要保证33%的收益是稳定的，那不是应该选择A吗
NO.PZ2018110601000007 为什么不选portfolio C？25年后的go折现的PV是400000，portfolio C投资在债券，cash这种低风险资产上的金额大于400000，可以较稳定的实现25年后的目标，剩下的excess部分可以追求较高风险的资产。如果说hee fun不是资产类别，那为什么选portfolio B就是对的呢？
