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alice006 · 2019年01月10日

问一道题:NO.PZ201601050100000302 第2小题 [ CFA III ]

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问题如下图:

选项:

A.

B.

C.

解释:

老师,本题从进出口角度理解,韩国出口减少说明韩币升值。但从赤字角度理解,韩国出口小于进口,有赤字,韩币应该贬值。考试应该从哪个角度理解呢?

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已采纳答案

Shimin_CPA税法主讲、CFA教研 · 2019年01月10日

我觉得进出口角度是有些问题的,因为韩币升值会抑制出口,但是出口减少不一定是因为韩币升值。这两者因果关系不对。

出口减少可能是因为韩国在生产商品时的相对优势不足,缺乏竞争力,或者生产技术被超越了,出口减少还会带来产能过剩,就业机会下降,总的来说出口减少对国家发展的负面影响比较多,所以货币会贬值。

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NO.PZ201601050100000302问题如下2. For Subscriber 2, anassuming all of the choices relate to the KRW/USexchange rate, the best wto implement the trang strategy woulto:A.write a strale.B.buy a put option.C.use a long N position. C is correct.Baseon precteexport tren, Subscriber 2 most likely expects the KRW/USrate to appreciate (i.e., the won—the pricurrency—to preciate relative to the US. This woulrequire a long forwarposition in a forwarcontract, but a country with capitcontrols, a N wouluseinstea (Note: While forwarcontracts offerebanks are generally institutionproct, not retail, the retail version of a non-liverable forwarcontrais known a -contrafor fferences- (CF anis available severretail FX brokers.)A is incorrebecause Subscriber 2 expects the KRW/USrate to appreciate. A short strale position woulusewhen the rection of exchange rate movement is unknown anvolatility is expecteto remain low.B is incorrebecause a put option woulprofit from a preciation of the KRW/USrate, not appreciation (expecte. Higher volatility woulalso make buying a put option more expensive.中文解析本小题讨论的是Subscriber 2(2号订阅者),对应题干信息说到韩国出口下降而美国出口上升(“Unitestates is experiencing a rise in exports”),一国的出口增加将会使得本币升值,因此美元将会升值。可以这样理解,美国的出口增加,那么市场上需要更多地美元来购买这些商品,对美元的需求增加,美元就升值了。关于因为题干中说到预测波动率会增加,因此不应该write a strale,因为这是赌波动率会不变或者下降的,A错。标价形式为KRW/US我们研究的是US而US值,所以不应buy a put option. B错。预测US升值,我们需要做US值可以获利的头寸,因此long forwar又因为资本管制的原因,所以我们选择使用N。如题。因为判断韩国不属于新兴市场,所以没选n

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2022-02-22 09:51 1 · 回答

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