问题如下图：
我有两个小问题
第一，对于loyalty，我答的endowment bias可以吗？
第二，答案中说的naive extrapolation of past returns和representativeness是一回事儿吗？我答的是后者。如果不是一回事儿的话有什么区别，怎么分辨？
谢谢老师。
品职辅导员_小明 · 2018年12月14日
1.endowment bias 是对的
2. representativeness 是cognitive errors, 不是emotional biases，所以不是一回事
naive extrapolation of past returns 相似于status quo ， 就是懒，不想去改变，没有原因，因为他认为公司过去表现很好，将来也会很好，所以懒的去改变。
自然音 · 2018年12月14日
好了解了 谢谢老师 我经常把一个人用过去预测未来当成representativeness bias
品职辅导员_小明 · 2018年12月15日
你这里缺少一个框架感，在记忆具体的bias之前，还是先分类比较好，哪些是cognitive errors，哪些是emotional biases
小木头 · 2019年10月26日
可是我记得老师在课上讲过，Naive extrapolation of past return类似Representativeness?
NO.PZ2018091705000060 John Hill, sole owner of JEquipment Leasing Co. (JCH), is evaluating a future sale of his company anapproaches Mary Keller, a wealth aiser, for aice. Hill refers his frien RicharMorrison, the former CEO of Masury Brie anIron (MBI), to Keller to scuss his wealth goals. Keller meets with Morrison angathers the following information: • RicharMorrison is 50 years olanhis spouse, Mereth, is 49 years ol Both are healthy anboth expeto live least aition40 years. • The Morrisons have a 20-year-olson anwoullike to transfer 5% of their wealth to him ring their lifetime. • RicharMorrison retiretwo years ago aninten to spenhis time serving on philanthropic boar; Mereth es not work. • The Morrisons own 2 million shares of MBI, currently value$50 million, representing approximately 90% of their wealth. • Mis a large, publicly tracompany, anthe Morrisons’ position equals approximately 1% of the totmarket capitalization. • The Morrison family pen on vin from Mfor their y-to-y living expenses. • The cost basis of their Mshares is close to zero, anthe capitgains trate is 15%. • RicharMorrison is loyto MBI, follows the stoclosely, believes he knows the company better thother investors, anexpects the company to continue to a gooinvestment in the future just like it hbeen in the past. • The Morrisons’ key objective is to maintain their current stanrof living ring retirement. Explain three emotionbiases thmaffeRicharMorrison’s cision making. A number of emotionbiases cnegatively affethe cision-making of holrs of concentratepositions. Specifically, RicharMorrison’s cision to versify mnegatively affecteloyalty effects, overconfince/familiarity, anstatus quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns. The facts incate thMr. Morrison is extremely loyto M(loyalty effect); he believes he knows the company better thother investors (overconfince/familiarity); anhe expects the company to continue to a gooinvestment it hbeen in the past (status quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns). 老师，RicharMorrison is loyto MBI, follows the stoclosely, believes he knows the company better thother investors, anexpects the company to continue to a gooinvestment in the future just like it hbeen in the past. 这可不可以理解为representative basis呢?
NO.PZ2018091705000060 A number of emotionbiases cnegatively affethe cision-making of holrs of concentratepositions. Specifically, RicharMorrison’s cision to versify mnegatively affecteloyalty effects, overconfince/familiarity, anstatus quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns. The facts incate thMr. Morrison is extremely loyto M(loyalty effect); he believes he knows the company better thother investors (overconfince/familiarity); anhe expects the company to continue to a gooinvestment it hbeen in the past (status quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns). 这个为啥不是halo bias就是那个光环效应？因为他觉得这公司好
NO.PZ2018091705000060 John Hill, sole owner of JEquipment Leasing Co. (JCH), is evaluating a future sale of his company anapproaches Mary Keller, a wealth aiser, for aice. Hill refers his frien RicharMorrison, the former CEO of Masury Brie anIron (MBI), to Keller to scuss his wealth goals. Keller meets with Morrison angathers the following information: • RicharMorrison is 50 years olanhis spouse, Mereth, is 49 years ol Both are healthy anboth expeto live least aition40 years. • The Morrisons have a 20-year-olson anwoullike to transfer 5% of their wealth to him ring their lifetime. • RicharMorrison retiretwo years ago aninten to spenhis time serving on philanthropic boar; Mereth es not work. • The Morrisons own 2 million shares of MBI, currently value$50 million, representing approximately 90% of their wealth. • Mis a large, publicly tracompany, anthe Morrisons’ position equals approximately 1% of the totmarket capitalization. • The Morrison family pen on vin from Mfor their y-to-y living expenses. • The cost basis of their Mshares is close to zero, anthe capitgains trate is 15%. • RicharMorrison is loyto MBI, follows the stoclosely, believes he knows the company better thother investors, anexpects the company to continue to a gooinvestment in the future just like it hbeen in the past. • The Morrisons’ key objective is to maintain their current stanrof living ring retirement. Explain three emotionbiases thmaffeRicharMorrison’s cision making. A number of emotionbiases cnegatively affethe cision-making of holrs of concentratepositions. Specifically, RicharMorrison’s cision to versify mnegatively affecteloyalty effects, overconfince/familiarity, anstatus quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns. The facts incate thMr. Morrison is extremely loyto M(loyalty effect); he believes he knows the company better thother investors (overconfince/familiarity); anhe expects the company to continue to a gooinvestment it hbeen in the past (status quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns). 没有Availability bias吗？因为熟悉MBI所以认为会一直好下去。
NO.PZ2018091705000060 A number of emotionbiases cnegatively affethe cision-making of holrs of concentratepositions. Specifically, RicharMorrison’s cision to versify mnegatively affecteloyalty effects, overconfince/familiarity, anstatus quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns. The facts incate thMr. Morrison is extremely loyto M(loyalty effect); he believes he knows the company better thother investors (overconfince/familiarity); anhe expects the company to continue to a gooinvestment it hbeen in the past (status quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns). 问题如上 感觉这两个概念没怎么见过呢
John Hill, sole owner of JEquipment Leasing Co. (JCH), is evaluating a future sale of his company anapproaches Mary Keller, a wealth aiser, for aice. Hill refers his frien RicharMorrison, the former CEO of Masury Brie anIron (MBI), to Keller to scuss his wealth goals. Keller meets with Morrison angathers the following information: • RicharMorrison is 50 years olanhis spouse, Mereth, is 49 years ol Both are healthy anboth expeto live least aition40 years. • The Morrisons have a 20-year-olson anwoullike to transfer 5% of their wealth to him ring their lifetime. • RicharMorrison retiretwo years ago aninten to spenhis time serving on philanthropic boar; Mereth es not work. • The Morrisons own 2 million shares of MBI, currently value$50 million, representing approximately 90% of their wealth. • Mis a large, publicly tracompany, anthe Morrisons’ position equals approximately 1% of the totmarket capitalization. • The Morrison family pen on vin from Mfor their y-to-y living expenses. • The cost basis of their Mshares is close to zero, anthe capitgains trate is 15%. • RicharMorrison is loyto MBI, follows the stoclosely, believes he knows the company better thother investors, anexpects the company to continue to a gooinvestment in the future just like it hbeen in the past. • The Morrisons’ key objective is to maintain their current stanrof living ring retirement. Explain three emotionbiases thmaffeRicharMorrison’s cision making. A number of emotionbiases cnegatively affethe cision-making of holrs of concentratepositions. Specifically, RicharMorrison’s cision to versify mnegatively affecteloyalty effects, overconfince/familiarity, anstatus quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns. The facts incate thMr. Morrison is extremely loyto M(loyalty effect); he believes he knows the company better thother investors (overconfince/familiarity); anhe expects the company to continue to a gooinvestment it hbeen in the past (status quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns). 请问从哪句可以看出loyalty?