请问我这样回答可以吗

问题如下：

Rohan Roggen is the founder of a successful business in Europe. Roggen also created the Roggen Family Charitable Foundation (RFCF) to fund projects in perpetuity that will provide clean drinking water in developing countries.

RFCF’s current portfolio is valued at EUR 250 million, with 50% in equities and 50% in fixed income. The portfolio’s equity holdings are in a fund tracking a broad index of EUR-denominated stocks; the fixed-income holdings are in a fund tracking an all-maturity index of EUR- denominated government bonds. Roggen rebalances the foundation’s portfolio every six months.

Roggen hires Michaela Loucks, an investment consultant, to advise on RFCF’s asset allocation and investments. Roggen explains that he wants the foundation to achieve the following objectives:

Ÿ Spend at least 3% of the fund’s beginning value on projects each year in order to satisfy a legal requirement.

Ÿ As part of this annual distribution, spend at least EUR 5 million (inflation-adjusted) each year on projects in emerging countries in Europe.

Ÿ Minimize the likelihood of a decline in the portfolio’s value of more than 10% in any single year.

Loucks also evaluates available methods for determining the target asset class weights in the IPS. She decides to use a Monte Carlo simulation rather than single-period mean-variance optimization (MVO) to establish these target weights. She determines that RFCF has an above-average risk tolerance.

D. Support, with two reasons, Loucks’ choice of Monte Carlo simulation, rather than MVO, to determine RFCF’s target asset class weights.

选项：

解释：

Loucks’ use of Monte Carlo simulation for determining RFCF’s target asset allocation weights is more appropriate than MVO because of the following:

Ÿ The foundation is expected to operate in perpetuity, so it has a multi-period framework. Monte Carlo simulation is able to incorporate the effect of changes to variables over time. In this case, Loucks can demonstrate how various spending policies could affect the portfolio’s value and ability to grow in real terms. MVO is a single-period framework, so as an example, it cannot be used to evaluate the likelihood of the foundation dropping below the EUR 5 million (real) desired spending level in the future.

Ÿ Roggen currently rebalances the portfolio every six months. Monte Carlo analysis allows Loucks to analyze different rebalancing policies and their costs over time. In a single-period setting, such as that assumed by MVO, rebalancing is not taken into account.

Ÿ As there are cash flows out of the portfolio each year, terminal wealth (or the portfolio’s value at a given point in the future) will be path-dependent. Withdrawing 3% of the portfolio’s beginning balance (or EUR 5 million) during a period of low asset prices will be more harmful than if the outflow occurs during a bull market. Similarly, Monte Carlo simulation addresses the sequencing issues in looking at returns. For example, it adjusts for the potential of large losses in early years.

Ÿ Monte Carlo can incorporate statistical properties outside the normal distribution, such as skewness and excess kurtosis, in the distribution of the equity portion of RFCF’s portfolio. It can also be incorporated in alternative investments (such as private equity, real estate, and commodities), which RFCF is considering adding to the portfolio.