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mino酱是个小破货 · 2025年02月17日

为啥PEG不和自身行业比啊?谢谢老师

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NO.PZ202207040100000305

问题如下:

Using Exhibits 1 and 2, the stock that would be the best addition to Fund D is:

选项:

A.AQU. B.BRW. C.CSY.

解释:

Solution

C is correct. Fund D follows the GARP (growth at a reasonable price) strategy, which seeks out companies with above-average growth that trade at reasonable valuation multiples. Many investors who use GARP rely on the P/E-to-growth (PEG) ratio.

  • AQU’s forward P/E is 36 ÷ 3.70 = 9.73, and its PEG ratio is 9.73 ÷ 9.50 = 1.02.

  • BRW’s forward P/E is 28 ÷ 2.75 = 10.18, and its PEG is 10.18 ÷ 12.0 = 0.85.

  • CSY’s forward P/E is 19 ÷ 1.95 = 9.74, and its PEG is 9.74 ÷ 11.25 = 0.87.

Although lower PEG ratios are preferred and BRW has a slightly lower PEG ratio than CSY, BRW’s EPS growth forecast of 12.00% is below the sector long-term growth forecast of 14.00% whereas CSY’s EPS growth forecast of 11.25% is above the sector long-term growth forecast of 10.00%. Given CSY’s combination of above-average growth and a reasonable valuation multiple, it would be the best addition to Fund D.

A is incorrect. AQU has the highest PEG ratio; lower PEG ratios are preferred.

B is incorrect. Although BRW has a slightly lower PEG ratio than CSY, BRW’s EPS growth forecast of 12.00% is below the sector long-term growth forecast of 14.00% whereas CSY’s EPS growth forecast of 11.25% is above the sector long-term growth forecast of 10.00%.

中文解析:

本题考查的是GARP (growth at a reasonable price) 策略。

投资者通常使用这种方法来寻找增长率高于平均水平且估值倍数合理的公司。判断公司是否满足GARP基于的是PEG ratio 该比率越低的股票,越满足GARP的特征。因此,我们根据题目给出的数据,先分别计算出三家公司各自的forward P/E,再分别除以各自的盈利增长率,得到各自的PEG ratio。注意在做除法时,分母我们使用的是公司自身的盈利增长率即EPS Growth Forecast而非表格最后一列行业增长率。行业增长率是用来和EPS Growth Forecast做对比的,只有同时满足公司盈利增长率超过行业平均增长水平以及较低PEG ratio的公司才符合GARP的特征。根据计算和比较结果来看,虽然BRW公司的PEG ratio最低,但是它的EPS增长率(12%)低于行业平均(14%),所以不能选B。而同时满足这两项标准的公司为CSY,因此正确选项为C

首先排除中间,但第一个PEG1.032但行业PEG1.42,第三个PEG0.86,但行业1.08。所以我综合下,觉得第一个更好,因为优于行业程度更高。

1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2025年02月18日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


这里要有一个知识点,PEG要和1比较,一般认为<=1会比较好。PEG越低越好。

PEG不和行业比较,行业PEG1.42说明行业整体被高估。某公司PEG低于行业PEG,这个公司只是高估程度没行业那么多,但绝对来说依然算高估。


在以上知识点的基础上,结合本题:

B和C,PEG都满足。排除A。

于是再看其他条件:要求公司增长高于行业增长,因此排除B。最终选C。


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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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