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西红柿面 · 2025年02月17日

这个冲销干预到底是因为热钱流出引起的还是因为扩张的货币政策引起的

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NO.PZ202212260100003902

问题如下:

(2) Based on Exhibit 1, which country’s central bank is most likely to buy domestic bonds near term to sterilize the impact of money flows on domestic liquidity?

选项:

A.Country A B.Country B C.Country C

解释:

Hot money is flowing out of Country B; thus, Country B’s central bank is the most likely to sell foreign currency (thereby draining domestic liquidity) to limit/avoid depreciation of the domestic currency and buy government securities (thereby providing liquidity) to sterilize the impact on bank reserves and interest rates.

A is incorrect because Country A is not experiencing hot money flows and, therefore, would not need to sterilize the impact of money flows on domestic liquidity.

C is incorrect because hot money is flowing into Country C; thus, Country C’s central bank is most likely to sell government securities to limit the growth of bank reserves and/or maintain a target level of interest rates.

中文解析:

热钱从B国流出;因此,B国央行最有可能出售外币(从而抽走国内流动性)以限制/避免本币贬值,并购买政府证券(从而提供流动性)以冲销对银行储备和利率的影响。

A是不正确的,因为A国没有经历热钱流动,因此不需要冲销货币流动对国内流动性的影响。

C是不正确的,因为热钱正在流入C国;因此,C国央行最有可能出售政府证券,以限制银行储备的增长和/或维持目标利率水平。

助教的回答是,因为热钱流出,才导致后面的一系列操作:“热钱流出,为了保持汇率不变,央行现在外汇市场要买入本币。等于央行做了紧缩的动作。接着要平抑上述影响,央行接下来在国内市场开始做放水动作,也就是要买入债券。所以冲销干预的逻辑是,先看外汇市场,再看国内市场。”,但是老师上课讲的例子是“扩张的货币政策导致利率下降,资本外逃,本币贬值。央行为了稳定汇率又得在市场上大幅买本币,这样相当于施加了一个紧缩的货币政策,所以相当于抵消了之前的扩张政策”

不太懂到底是因为哪个因素先引起的





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