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tristabo · 2025年02月15日

95%转换成99%置信区间怎么做,为什么是2.33/1.65

NO.PZ2016072602000060

问题如下:

As a risk manager for Bank ABC, John is asked to calculate the market risk capital charge of the bank’s trading portfolio under the 1996 internal models approach. The VAR (95%, one-day) of the last trading day is USD 30,000; the average VAR (95%, one-day) for the last 60 trading days is USD 20,000. The multiplier is k=3. Assuming the return of the bank’s trading portfolio is normally distributed, what is the market risk capital charge of the trading portfolio?

选项:

A.

USD 84,582

B.

USD 189,737

C.

USD 268,200

D.

USD 134,594

解释:

C is correct. The average VAR times 3 is USD 60,000. Because this is higher than yesterday's VAR, this is the binding number. Multiplying by 10\sqrt{10} x 2.323/1.645 = 4.47 gives USD 268,200.



1 个答案

李坏_品职助教 · 2025年02月15日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


先用平均的VaR乘以K得出60000,这个大于前一天的VaR,所以60000代表了95%置信度的1天的VaR。

既然是95%,那这个60000其实是用1.645的Z值求出来的(95%置信度的Z =1.645.)注意公式法的VaR = Z * σ * 根号T。

首先把1.645这个Z除掉,然后重新乘以99%的Z值2.323.


此外还需要考虑到,题目问的是10天的,所以乘以根号10. 最后是60000/1.645 * 2.323 * 根号10 = 267938.

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