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wakaka · 2025年02月15日

老师麻烦帮忙理解下这道题

NO.PZ2024082801000008

问题如下:

Question Which of the following is most consistent with a correctly specified autoregressive model?

选项:

A.A.Residual values are constant and finite B.B.Residual autocorrelations differ significantly from zero C.C.Autocorrelations of the error term are not significantly different from zero

解释:

  • A is Incorrect because the residual values are the differences between the time series and the trend, and they do not need to be constant for the model to be correctly specified.

  • B is Incorrect because we estimate the error autocorrelation using the sample autocorrelations of the residuals (residual autocorrelations) and their sample variance. If significance tests show that the residual autocorrelations differ significantly from 0, the model is not correctly specified.

  • C is Correct because we can determine whether we are using the correct time-series model by testing whether the autocorrelations of the error term (error autocorrelations) differ significantly from 0. If they do, the model is not specified correctly. Given that, in our case, the autocorrelations of the error term are not significantly different from zero, this does not suggest misspecification.

关于C选项的解释,我没有看明白

1 个答案

品职助教_七七 · 2025年02月15日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


C选项意为AR模型的 残差项的相关系数 并不显著的不为0,也就是残差之间的相关系数等于0的意思。这说明残差之间没有(自)相关。满足AR模型的假设。

如果残差之间的相关系数不为0,说明残差之间有相关性,这就违反了AR模型的假设。


此前已经提示过,提问时请具体说明解析中的哪个地方不理解。重复讲解已经理解的地方是没有意义的。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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