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西红柿面 · 2025年02月10日

从Bond Price的角度应该如何理解?

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NO.PZ202112010200002402

问题如下:

Once the manager purchases CDS protection, the issuer’s CDS spread immediately falls to 1.60%. What is the investor’s approximate mark-to-market gain or loss for a contract notional of €10,000,000?

选项:

A.

The manager realizes an approximate loss of €131,250.

B.

The manager realizes an approximate gain of €131,250.

C.

The manager realizes an approximate gain of €525,000.

解释:

A is correct. The CDS spread decline of 0.15% leads to a new CDS contract price of 94.75 per 100 face value (=1 – (EffSpreadDurCDS × ∆Spread) or (8.75 × 0.60%)).

The protection buyer (short risk) position therefore realizes an approximate mark-to-market loss of €131,250 (=(94.75 – 93.4375)/100 × €10,000,000) because of the 0.15% decline in CDS spreads.

从Bond Price的角度应该如何理解?我计算的CDS Price,也就是Bond Price是升高的,所以应该是Gain才对呀

1 个答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2025年02月11日

这道题从CDS spread的角度直接选,不用计算哈。


CDS spread有多大,购买CDS合约就需要支付多少保费。虽然现在的保费是固定的coupon 1% or 5%,但是会有upfront premium进行调节。

整体上看:固定的coupon + upfront premium调节,这个付出的保费成本一定等于CDS spread。

即,标的物信用风险有多大,则应支付多少保费。


期初CDS spread = 1.75%,按照1.75%的价格买入保险。现在CDS spread变成了1.60%,如果按最新价买入CDS保险的话,只需支付1.60%的保费。所以买亏了,本题直接选A。


用债券角度分析的话,Buy CDS获得保险等于转移风险,即看空信用风险,是short credit risk头寸,对应的债券头寸是short bond。

期初bond对应的Spread=1.75%,期末变成1.60%,spread下滑则债券价格上升,short头寸有亏损。


如果是计算的话,算CDS price,这个price不是bond price。要算出upfront premium进行考虑,会稍微复杂点。


期初的CDS价格:

CDS price = 1 + (1%-1.75%)×8.75 = 0.9344

我们是作为买方,期初要支付upfront premium = 1 -0.9344 = 0.0656


注意,我们是Buy CDS protection,现在要看这份合约的盈亏。所有衍生品算盈亏的时候,都是签订一份新的反向对冲合约,平仓掉旧合约。两份合约的value差值为旧合约的盈亏。


所以我们现在要考虑新合约的价格,签入新合约进行平仓。期末的CDS spread变成1.60%,有新的价格,为:

CDS price new = 1 + (1%-1.60%)×8.75 = 0.9475


为了平仓旧合约,我们应该sell CDS新合约。期末卖出时,收到upfront premium为1-0.9475=0.0525


所以,期初我们支付upfront premium = 0.0656,期末平仓收到UP=0.0525,净的收益为:

0.0525 - 0.0656 = -0.0131,这是1元面值的亏损


CDS的NP=10,000,000

则总亏损是:-0.0131× 10,000,000=-131,000


用CDS price这样计算比较复杂。所以后续判断的时候,直接求期初与期末的CDS price,两者算差值为CDS的价值收益。

如本题的期初价0.9344,期末价0.9475

价差为:0.9475 - 0.9344 = 0.0131

面值为10,000,000,则总盈亏为:10,000,000×0.0131=131,000

这种只能算出盈亏,但不能判断是盈利还是亏损,我们需要自己结合头寸来分析下是盈利还是亏损。

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