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Pearl · 2025年02月08日

contraction阶段收益率曲线steepen是向上倾斜还是向下倾斜

NO.PZ2022122601000007

问题如下:

Observation 3The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase, with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions.

Based on Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yield curve in the near term to:

选项:

A.invert

B. flatten

C.

steepen

解释:

Correct Answer: C

C is correct. The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase (curve is flat to inverted), with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions (i.e., bond yields are declining). The curve will most likely steepen near term, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phase of the business cycle, and be the steepest on the cusp of the initial recovery phase.

中文解析:

正确答案:C

C正确。Y国当前的收益率曲线表明,商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平坦到倒挂),债券收益率开始反映紧缩状况(即债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线很可能在短期内变得更陡,与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡相一致,并且在初始复苏阶段的尖端是最陡的。

以及收益率曲线跟利率曲线的关系,contraction 扩张货币政策 利率下降 收益率提升 所以收益率曲线是向上倾斜对吗?

1 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2025年02月08日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


正式的讲法就是收益率曲线,可以理解为它是利率曲线。

收缩阶段,宽松货币政策导致短期利率极速下降,这种下降趋势会传导给长期利率。

但是短期利率下降更快(对货币政策更敏感),所以收益率曲线变得陡峭。

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