指标法

问题如下：

Patricia Snow is a portfolio manager at Peak Capital, an asset management firm. Snow has a long track record of strong performance in managing multi-asset portfolios. When discussing her investment process with new analysts at Peak Capital, Snow will highlight the importance of having a robust approach to setting capital market expectations (CMEs).

When setting CMEs, Snow’s first step is to define the universe of asset classes eligible for investment within the portfolio she is managing. Once the asset classes are determined, Snow will seek to understand their historical performance by analyzing return drivers. Snow manages portfolios that focus on asset classes with large, liquid markets in which there are ample data available, enabling a robust CME process.

Where possible, Snow will seek to include asset classes with very long periods of returns data. In her data evaluation process, she is careful to consider the entire period of returns, as opposed to selectively emphasizing certain time periods, in her CME calculations.

Throughout Snow’s career, the primary source of alpha in the portfolios she manages has been her capacity to precisely predict short- to intermediate-term economic fluctuations, specifically business cycle turning points, and to accordingly adjust allocations across diverse asset classes.

Snow is currently updating her forecast for the US economy. The inflation rate in the US has been moving higher over the last year, and market projections are that this trend will continue. After experiencing a period of strong above-trend growth, GDP growth has started to decelerate. Market expectations of GDP growth remain above trend for the immediate future. Snow expects the Federal Reserve to continue raising short-term interest rates, aiming for a “soft landing.”

Which approach is most consistent with Snow's approach to economic forecasting?

选项：

A.Checklist approach B.Economic models approach C.Leading indicator-based approach

解释：

The leading indicator-based approach focuses primarily on identifying turning points.

One of the weaknesses of the econometric models approach is that it rarely forecasts turning points well. Identifying turning points is neither a strength nor a weakness of the checklist approach.