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Anderson · 2025年02月02日

关于business cycle资产类别选择问题陈述理由


参考答案:The equity allocation of the Country D portfolio should be increased.

Regarding trend growth, all else the same, an increase in trend growth (as in Country D)

favors equities because it implies more rapid long-run earnings growth. Faster growth

due to productivity is especially beneficial. In contrast, higher trend growth generally

results in somewhat higher real interest rates, a negative for currently outstanding

bonds.

Regarding the phase of the business cycle, the best time to buy equities is generally

when the economy is approaching the trough of the business cycle (as in Country D).

Valuation multiples and expected earnings growth rates are low and set to rise. At this

stage of the cycle, the term premium is high (the yield curve is steep) and the credit

premium is high (credit spreads are wide). However, short-term interest rates are likely

to start rising soon,


我的问题:

1)CME里面关于business cycle或者trend rate会考主观题吗?


2)我的回答,麻烦评估一下是否能拿分。


Should be increased.


Business cycle: The economy is approaching the bottom and in the late stage of contraction, equity investment normally is attractive.


Trend rate: when the trend growth rate is high due to high labor productivity, the expected return of equity is high and attractive as according to the GK model, higher GDP growth rate lead to higher equity expected return, all esle equal.


我自己感觉business cycle里面参考答案还写了理由,比如Valuation multiples and expected earnings growth rates are low and set to rise.,估值吸引人等理由去support,这些需要在实际考试中写出来吗?


能不能帮忙把参考答案中哪些需要当作结论背的内容罗列一下,看看这种题怎么回答更能拿分 谢谢

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