11:16 (1.5X)
其他几个phase我写一下，麻烦老师看下对错
- initial recovery: yield curve steepen. loose monetary policy will lead short term interest rate decrease, with the expectation of future inflation will increase, long term interest rate will increase(这条我写的和讲义不一样，讲义上说bond yield在下降，那怎么表达steepen啊？）
- early expansion: yield curve flatten, restrictive monetary policy will lead short term interest rate increase, bond yield will increase but less than shoer term interest rate.
- slowdown: yield curve invert, short term interest rate increase and achieve the peak in this phase, with the expectation of future inflation will decrease, long term interest rate will decrease
- contraction,yield curve steepen. loose monetary policy will lead short term interest rate decrease, with the expectation of future inflation will decrease , long term interest rate will decrease