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KKII · 2025年01月24日

C为啥错?

NO.PZ2023032703000088

问题如下:

Serena Soto is a risk management specialist with Liability Protection Advisors. Trey Hudgens, CFO of Kiest Manufacturing, enlists Soto’s help with three projects.

The second project for Soto is to help Hudgens immunize a $20 million portfolio of liabilities. Soto suggested employing a duration-matching strategy using one of the three AAA rated bond portfolios presented in Exhibit 2.

Exhibit 2 Possible AAA Rated Duration-Matching Portfolios

Based on Exhibit 2, relative to Portfolio C, Portfolio B

选项:

A.

has higher cash flow reinvestment risk.

B.

is a more desirable portfolio for liquidity management.

C.

provides less protection from yield curve shifts and twists.

解释:

Correct Answer: B

B is correct. Portfolio B is a laddered portfolio with maturities spread more or less evenly over the yield curve. A desirable aspect of a laddered portfolio is liquidity management. Because there is always a bond close to redemption, the soon-to-mature bond can provide emergency liquidity needs. Barbell portfolios, such as Portfolio C, have maturities only at the short-term and long-term ends and thus are much less desirable for liquidity management.

组合C是barbell portfolio,convexity最大,在yield curve shift的时候,表现好于laddered portfolio


1 个答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2025年01月26日

这个是原版书结论:laddered portfolios provide more protection from yield curve shifts and twists.

在利率曲线非平行移动时,laddered portfolio的表现最稳定,所以是more protection


barbell和bullet的问题是:现金流过于集中在某些特定的利率上,如果非平行移动影响到这些利率的话,组合会受到极大影响;如果非平行移动没有影响到这些利率,组合的表现会极端稳定。


例如,1-year和15-year构成的barbell

如果非平行移动是8-year的利率改变,这时候组合基本不受影响。因为影响组合的利率就是1-year和15-year。此时,这种非平行移动,组合表现极端稳定


如果非平行移动是1-year和15-year的利率上升,此时组合会受到极端的大幅度影响。因为恰好是key rate利率改变。这种非平行移动,组合受到极大影响。


所以,非平行移动,barbell的受到的影响要么很大,要么不受影响。本质原因就是他有非常突出的key rate duration。只要是这些利率改变,组合就会有极大影响。这是极端的,不稳定的表现。这种极端的,不稳定的表现,就是less protection。


bullet同理。


而laddered,不管利率非平行移动是哪些点,组合都会受到影响,但影响都不大。因为laddered的cash flow分散均匀,每个期限都有一点,但权重都不多,没有突出的key rate duration。所以在任何非平行移动时,laddered的表现就差不多。这稳定性就是more protection from yield curve twists and shift.


题目里面说的barbell convexity更大,所以非平行移动时表现更好。这个分析角度有点问题,一个是convexity属于平行移动的指标,无法分析非平行移动的影响。

第二个是,就是勉强考虑convexity在非平行的影响,但convexity的影响力太小了,属于二阶指标,远低于key rate duration一阶线性指标带来的影响。所以最终的分析思路还是要回归到我上面的回复。

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