NO.PZ202001210200000107
问题如下：
Neshie Wakuluk is an investment strategist who develops capital market expectations for an investment firm that invests across asset classes and global markets. Wakuluk started her career when the global markets were experiencing significant volatility and poor returns; as a result, she is now careful to base her conclusions on objective evidence and analytical procedures to mitigate any potential biases.
Wakuluk’s approach to economic forecasting utilizes a structural model in conjunction with a diffusion index to determine the current phase of a country’s business cycle. This approach has produced successful predictions in the past, thus Wakuluk has high confidence in the predictions. Wakuluk also determines whether any adjustments need to be made to her initial estimates of the respective aggregate economic growth trends based on historical rates of growth for Countries X and Y (both developed markets) and Country Z (a developing market). Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s predictions:
Wakuluk assumes short-term interest rates adjust with expected inflation and are procyclical. Wakuluk reviews the historical short-term interest rate trends for each country, which further confirms her predictions shown in Exhibit 1.
Wakuluk decides to focus on Country Y to determine the path of nominal interest rates, the potential economic response of Country Y’s economy to this path, and the timing for when Country Y’s economy may move into the next business cycle. Wakuluk makes the following observations:
Observation 1 Monetary policy has been persistently loose for Country Y, while fiscal policies have been persistently tight.
Observation 2 Country Y is expected to significantly increase transfer payments and introduce a more progressive tax regime.
Observation 3 The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase, with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions.
Based on Observation 2, what impact will the policy changes have on the trend rate of growth for Country Y?
选项：
A.Negative
Neutral
Positive
解释：
C is correct. Country Y is expected to significantly increase transfer payments and introduce a more progressive tax regime. Both of these changes are pro-growth government policies and should have a positive impact on the trend rate of growth for a business cycle that is in slowdown or contraction. Transfer payments help mitigate fluctuations in disposable income for the most vulnerable households, while progressive tax regimes imply that the effective tax rate on the private sector is pro-cyclical (i.e., rising as the economy expands and falling as the economy contracts).
题目中说道预计Y国将大幅增加转移支付，并引入更累进的税收制度。这两种变化都是促进经济增长的政府政策，应此会对经济放缓或收缩的商业周期的趋势增长率产生积极影响。转移支付有助于缓解最脆弱家庭可支配收入的波动，而累进税制意味着对私营部门的有效税率是顺周期的(例如，经济扩张时上升，经济收缩时下降)。所以C选项正确。
我理解的是increase transfer payments and introduce a more progressive tax regime 是宽松的财政政策，增加了real interest rate，borrow cost增加。而Y是contraction阶段，一个高的borrowing cost不利于经济发展。所以选A。
请问我的理解哪里出问题了？谢谢