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方秋韵 · 2025年01月16日

我觉得C是正确的

NO.PZ2024082801000016

问题如下:

Question An analyst is investigating whether a time series xt has a unit root. To implement a Dickey–Fuller test, the analyst must first run a simple linear regression where the dependent variable is the first difference of the time series (xtxt–1) and the independent variable is the:

选项:

A.A.first lag of the time series (xt–1).

B.B.first lag of the time series minus one (xt–1 – 1).

C.C.first lag of the first difference of the time series (xt–1xt–2).

解释:

  • A is Correct because, according to the Dickey–Fuller test, if there is a unit root in the AR(1) model (xtxt–1 = b0 + g1xt–1 + εt), then g1 will be 0 in a regression where the dependent variable is the first difference of the time series (xtxt–1) and the independent variable is the first lag of the time series (xt–1).

  • B is Incorrect because, in a Dickey–Fuller test, the independent variable is the first lag of the time series, not the first lag of the time series minus one.

  • C is Incorrect because, in a Dickey–Fuller test, the independent variable is the first lag of the time series, not the first lag of the first difference of the time series.

我不是很理解,为什么自变量不是(Xt-1-Xt-2),而只是简单的Xt-1

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