老师 为什么这个看75th的

问题如下：

A client plans to retire after 10 years. His investment manager estimates that the client will need $200000 after 10 years. According to Monte Carlo simulation, the amount of the client's property after 10 years is shown in the table below. According to the results of Monte Carlo simulation, customers need 75% success probability.

Please judge whether the customer has achieved the retirement goal. If not, please give suggestions for improvement

选项：

解释：

The table illustrates portfolio values (adjusted for inflation) at specific time intervals and at certain percentiles of the thousand trials. Wealth managers tend to guide clients toward a 75%probability of success percentile indicates that in 75% of the trials, the portfolio value after 10 years exceeded 180,923, which is lower than the 200,000 goal. So the customer may not achieve the retirement goal.

Potential solutions when the probability of success falls below an acceptable range:

• Increasing contributions

• Reducing the goal amount

• Delaying the timing of a goal (e.g., retiring a few years later, like 15 years later)

• Adopting an investment strategy with higher expected returns, albeit within the client’s acceptable risk tolerance and risk capacity