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guguby · 2025年01月04日

利率方向判断

NO.PZ2020021601000013

问题如下:

Ivan Paulinic, an analyst at a large wealth management firm, meets with his supervisor to discuss adding financial institution equity securities to client portfolios.

Paulinic gathers data on three national banks that meet initial selection criteria but require further review.

All of the national banks under consideration primarily make long- term loans and source a significant portion of their funding from retail deposits. Paulinic and the rest of the research team note that the central bank is unwinding a long period of monetary easing as evidenced by two recent increases in the overnight funding rate. Paulinic informs his supervisor that:

Statement 1 Given the recently reported stronger- than- anticipated macroeconomic data, there is an imminent risk that the yield curve will invert.

Statement 2 N- bank is very active in the 30- day reverse repurchase agreement market during times when the bank experiences significant increases in retail deposits.

Based on Statement 1, the net interest margin for the three banks’ most likely will:

选项:

A.

decrease.

B.

remain unchanged.

C.

increase.

解释:

A is correct.

A bank’s net interest margin represents the difference between interest earned on loans and other interest- bearing assets and the level of interest paid on deposits and other interest- bearing liabilities. Banks typically borrow money for shorter terms (retail deposits) and lend to customers for longer periods (mortgages and car loans). If the yield curve unexpectedly inverts, the short- term funding costs will increase and the net interest margin will most likely decrease (not remain unchanged or increase).

two recent increases of funding rate 和yield curve will invert 两个结合起来看,利率不应该是下降吗

1 个答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2025年01月04日

同学你好,首先,“yield curve invert”这一点单独来看,代表的一般就是收益率曲线的反转。所谓的收益率曲线反转,就是指的短期利率变高而长期利率变低,从而导致收益率曲线翻转过来的状态(因为正常情况下应该是短期利率低长期利率高的向上倾斜的收益率曲线才是正常的曲线)——所以即便单看statement1也可以知道,题目这里想说的是短期利率上升了而长期利率下降的情景,也就是银行会需要给用更高的成本吸收存款同时放出去的贷款能收到的利息会下降

其次,如果结合题干的“two recent increases in the overnight funding rate.”这几句话,只能进一步加强上面这个结论,因为这里已经说了是隔夜拆借利率显著的提高,隔夜利率是短期利率,所以这里也是在说短期利率在大幅上升(而不是长期利率)——所以结合这句话和statement 1的表述,更可以直到一定是短期利率升高而长期利率不变或下降的情景哦

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