为什么投资者相比管理层对宏观因素更有信息优势？

NO.PZ2023100701000011

问题如下：

Management guidance is most appropriately used by analysts in forecasting:

选项：

capital expenditures of a company

pricing of commodities sold by a company

revenue of a company sensitive to the business cycle

解释：

A is correct. Management has an advantage at the firm level and tends to make more accurate forecasts for objects that are subject to management actions, such as capital expenditures. Management does not have an informational advantage over investors in forecasting macroeconomic variables, such as GDP, the business cycle, or the prices of commodities. Hutton et al. (2012) found that investors have an informational advantage over management at the macroeconomic level

investors have an informational advantage over management at the macroeconomic level

不是很理解这句话的含义，管理层难道不需要了解宏观因素吗，投资者的信息优势从何而来呢

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王园圆_品职助教 · 2025年01月02日

同学你好，解析原文“ Management does not have an informational advantage over investors in forecasting macroeconomic variables, such as GDP, the business cycle, or the prices of commodities. Hutton et al. (2012) found that investors have an informational advantage over management at the macroeconomic level”——注意这里解析先说了管理层不会比普通投资者更具有对宏观因素的比较优势，这也是CFA的结论，就是管理层和普通投资者是一样的，对宏观理解本质不会有什么显著差异

而后面半句，注意解析说的是Hutton et al. (2012) 这个人发现了一个规律，这个规律是投资者比管理层更有优势，这是一个发现，就像一个调研结果而不是科学论证过的结论，也不是CFA协会给出的结论，只是这个人个人的结论——所以助教也不能明确告诉你为什么这个作者觉得投资者更有优势，除非去把这个人的书或者论文读一遍哦。建议同学不用关注这个内容，协会除了在经济学章节，在别的课程里是不可能考一个个人的研究结论的

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