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Betty · 2024年12月29日

关于C

NO.PZ2024021802000059

问题如下:

In contrast to applying corporate governance as a risk assessment tool, incorporating corporate governance into a valuation model results in adjusting the:

选项:

A.discount rate applied. B.level of confidence in the valuation range. C.level of confidence about the multiple on which future earnings are placed in the valuation.

解释:

A is correct because if the analysis of corporate governance is specifically built into valuation models, this analysis is most typically done by recognizing negative governance characteristics by way of adding a risk premium to the cost of capital or raising the discount rate applied.

B is incorrect because as a risk assessment tool, corporate governance may represent the level of confidence about future earnings or the multiple on which those earnings are placed in a valuation—or it may be reflected less in full financial models and more in a simple level of confidence in the valuation range or investment thesis. Therefore, the level of confidence in the valuation range is adjusted when corporate governance is applied as a risk assessment tool, not when it is incorporated into a valuation model.

C is incorrect because as a risk assessment tool, corporate governance may represent the level of confidence about future earnings or the multiple on which those earnings are placed in a valuation. Therefore, the level of confidence about the multiple on which future earnings are placed in the valuation is adjusted when corporate governance is applied as a risk assessment tool, not when it is incorporated into a valuation model.

老师上课说,absolute valuation: 会根据ESG risk调整discount rate; relative valuation: 会根据ESG risk调整P/E。所以不太理解为什么C不对。

1 个答案

王岑 · 2024年12月30日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


这道题的核心在于理解 corporate governance(公司治理) 是如何在不同估值方法中被应用的,以及题目中描述的情景是 valuation model(估值模型) 还是 risk assessment tool(风险评估工具)

Absolute Valuation vs. Relative Valuation 的区别:

Absolute Valuation(绝对估值):

  • 例如 DCF(现金流折现模型)
  • 通过计算企业未来的现金流,并以适当的折现率(Discount Rate)将其折现为现值。
  • 如果存在较高的治理风险(如较差的公司治理结构可能带来未来现金流的不确定性),会通过提高折现率(即增加风险溢价,Risk Premium)来反映这类风险。

折现率的调整直接反映了治理风险在估值模型中的作用

Relative Valuation(相对估值):

  • 例如 P/E、EV/EBITDA 等倍数法。
  • 估值倍数反映了投资者对公司未来盈利能力和增长前景的信心。公司治理会影响估值倍数,因为较差的治理可能降低投资者对企业未来收益的信心。
  • 投资者可能会对公司适用的估值倍数(例如 P/E 倍数)进行调整,但这主要是一个“间接”反映治理因素的方式。

倍数的调整更多是反映对未来收益或投资信心的影响,而非通过直接调整估值模型来体现治理风险。


题目明确问的是:Incorporating corporate governance into a valuation model(将公司治理纳入估值模型),这意味着题目讨论的是绝对估值方法的情景,而非相对估值。

A选项:Discount rate applied(调整折现率)——正确

  • 在绝对估值方法(如DCF模型)中,公司治理被直接纳入估值模型时,通常通过调整折现率(增加风险溢价)来反映治理风险。
  • 比如,如果公司治理较差,投资者会要求更高的风险补偿,从而提高折现率。这是题目所描述的场景,答案正确。

B选项:Level of confidence in the valuation range(调整估值范围的置信水平)——错误

  • 调整估值范围的置信水平更多是“风险评估工具”的应用场景,而非估值模型。
  • 例如,在治理风险较高的情况下,分析师可能对未来收益预测或估值范围的可靠性缺乏信心,但这不是通过调整折现率或估值倍数实现的。

C选项:Level of confidence about the multiple on which future earnings are placed(调整未来收益倍数的置信水平)——错误

  • 这个场景属于“相对估值方法”,而不是题目中讨论的估值模型(即绝对估值)。在相对估值中,治理风险可能影响倍数(如P/E)的置信水平,但题目明确关注的是“估值模型”。
  • 倍数的调整不涉及DCF等绝对估值模型中的折现率调整,因此不符合题目描述。


为什么题目中的 C 选项不对?

题目问的是估值模型(Valuation Model)——即绝对估值方法,而非相对估值。

  • 相对估值的倍数调整(如P/E倍数降低)确实可以反映公司治理的影响,但这不是题目所要求的情境。
  • 折现率的调整更符合绝对估值模型的操作,因此选 A。

倍数调整属于间接反映,而不是直接体现在估值模型中。

  • 在倍数法中,治理风险通过影响市场对估值倍数的认知(如投资者降低倍数估值)体现。
  • 而在绝对估值模型中,治理风险通过调整折现率更直接地影响估值计算。



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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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