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Pavel Korchagin · 2024年12月24日

能不能解释一下最后一句话

NO.PZ2018120301000017

问题如下:

Serena explains to Trey that the underlying duration-matching strategy is based on the following three assumptions.

1. Yield curve shifts in the future will be parallel.

2. Bond types and quality will closely match those of the liabilities.

3. The portfolio will be rebalanced by buying or selling bonds rather than using derivatives.

Serena’s three assumptions regarding the duration-matching strategy indicate the presence of:

选项:

A.

model risk.

B.

spread risk.

C.

counterparty credit risk.

解释:

Correct Answer: A

A is correct. Serena believes that any shift in the yield curve will be parallel. Model risk arises whenever assumptions are made about future events and approximations are used to measure key parameters. The risk is that those assumptions turn out to be wrong and the approximations are inaccurate. A non-parallel yield curve shift could occur, resulting in a mismatch of the duration of the immunizing portfolio versus the liability.

 resulting in a mismatch of the duration of the immunizing portfolio versus the liability.

1 个答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2024年12月24日

这道题的背景是,他们要构建一个duration-matching的策略。然后自己做了3个假设,然后就问,如果按照他们自己给的这3个假设做策略的话,会产生选项中的哪些风险。


第一个假设是,他们认为,未来的利率只会发生平行移动。如果按照这样的假设去构建策略,则一定会发生Model risk。因为实际上利率不仅仅会发生平行移动,还会发生非平行移动。这种假设就是与事实不符,会使得模型错误引入模型风险(model risk)。

由于按照这样的假设构建策略不会考虑到非平行移动,那么当利率曲线发生非平行移动时,整个策略就会失效。


下面最后一句就是这个意思:

A non-parallel yield curve shift could occur, resulting in a mismatch of the duration of the immunizing portfolio versus the liability.


A non-parallel yield curve shift could occur说当发生非平行移动时


resulting in a mismatch of the duration of the immunizing portfolio versus the liability.这句说就会造成,资产(immunizing portfolio)与负债(liability)之间duration的不匹配(mismatch of the duration)

其实就是duration不匹配,造成匹配的不成功。


注意,资产是用来匹配负债的,所以有时候资产也会称为免疫组合(immunizing portfolio)

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