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添晴 · 2024年12月19日

b为什么不对

NO.PZ2024021801000005

问题如下:

An analyst determines that a company's exposure to environmental risks has increased. The most appropriate action is to:

选项:

A.apply a higher cost of capital.

B.adjust future projected cash flows upwards.

C.assign a premium to the company's relative P/E ratio.

解释:

A. Correct because when it comes to discounted cash flow input adjustments, for example, a company’s environmental management processes and policies are judged strong or weak. After this judgment, the cost of capital used to discount cash flows in a DCF analysis is adjusted down or up by 1% to account for this. This can also be on a country- or sector-basis, where a country or sector ESG risk factor may contribute to a change in a cost of capital or terminal value growth assumption. For example, the coal sector may be judged to have a negative environmental impact.

B. Incorrect because rather than changing model discount assumptions, explicit sales or margin assumptions may be adjusted. Also, adjustments can be made directly to the balance sheet or capital expense lines. A practitioner may believe that ESG factors will lead a company to decrease or increase its future capital expenditure. A forecast ESG impairment event, e.g. a sub-standard factory, may result in an impairment charge being made to bring the company’s book value down.

C. Incorrect because regarding valuation ratio adjustments with ESG integration, an investor may decide a company is worth a certain PE ratio premium or discount versus its peers due to ESG factors. Alternatively, an investor may only be prepared to invest in a company with, for example, a 50% discount on a PE ratio versus an index benchmark because the company is judged to have a high ESG risk. Conversely, an investor may be willing to invest in a company at a 50% premium on a PE ratio due to strong ESG characteristics. In this case, a discount, not a premium would be warranted.

b为什么不对,为什么影响的是cost而不是cash flow


1 个答案

王岑 · 2024年12月19日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


同学你好,

在这道题中,核心问题是:为什么环境风险的增加更直接影响的是折现率(成本)而不是未来的现金流(cash flow)?

A选项(成本的调整): 当一家公司的环境风险增加时,投资者通常会认为该公司面临的系统性或非系统性风险更高。为了补偿这种风险,投资者通常会要求更高的投资回报率,这会反映在加权平均资本成本(WACC)中。

  • 在贴现现金流(DCF)模型中,折现率的提升会直接影响估值,因为它是用来计算未来现金流现值的重要因素。
  • 具体来说,环境风险被认为是影响公司长期生存能力的一个风险因素,这种风险通常会直接反映在资本成本上。

因此,折现率是用来衡量风险的一种工具,当环境风险增加时,直接提升折现率是最合适的选择。

B选项(现金流的调整):未来现金流的调整一般基于更明确和直接的事件,比如收入增长、利润率变化、或资本支出的具体影响。例如,如果公司因为环境问题需要关闭某个不合规的工厂,可能会导致收入下降,这种情况下可以调整收入预测。如果公司需要支付更高的环境合规费用,可以直接反映在成本项上。

但在问题中,并没有提到明确的现金流受影响的具体机制,仅提到环境风险增加。这种情况下,直接调整未来现金流并不合理。现金流的调整需要基于具体的假设或事件,而不是笼统的风险增加。

为什么环境风险更影响资本成本而非现金流?

  • 资本成本反映的是公司整体的风险溢价,而现金流的调整需要更具体的预测依据。
  • 环境风险可能不会立即对公司的现金流产生明确的变化,但会显著改变投资者的风险偏好,从而影响资本成本。

假设一家公司主要从事煤炭业务:

  1. 如果煤炭行业的整体环境风险上升,投资者可能会要求更高的折现率来弥补这一行业的风险。这是通过调整资本成本来实现的(A选项)。
  2. 如果这家公司的某座煤矿因环保政策被关闭,直接影响其收入和利润,这时才会调整现金流预测(B选项)。
  3. 但如果我们直接给公司设定一个相对同行的PE溢价或折价,通常是基于强或弱的ESG表现,并不适用于普遍风险上升的场景(C选项)。

因此,题目选A是因为环境风险的增加首先影响投资者对该公司的风险评估,而这种评估主要通过资本成本来反映,而非未来现金流的调整。

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2024-03-15 15:24 6 · 回答