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子愉 · 2024年11月19日

等比数列求和

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NO.PZ201803130100000602

问题如下:

Construct the overall goals-based asset allocation for the Armstrongs given their three goals and Abbott’s suggestion for investing any excess capital. Show your calculations.

Show your calculations.

解释:

Guideline Answer:
■ The module that should be selected for each goal is the one that o
ers the highest return given the time horizon and required probability of success.
■ Approximately 16.4%, 12.7%, 50.4%, and 20.5% should be invested in Modules A, B, C, and D, respectively. The appropriate goals-based allocation for the Armstrongs is as follows:


Supporting calculations:
For Goal 1, which has a time horizon of five years and a required probability of success of 85%, Module C should be chosen because its 4.4% expected return is higher than the expected returns of all the other modules. The present value of Goal 1 is calculated as follows:
N = 5, FV = –5,000,000, I/Y = 4.4%; CPT PV = $4,031,508 (or $4.03 million)
So, approximately 50.4% of the total assets of $8 million (= $4.03 million/$8.00 million) should be allocated to Module C.

For Goal 2, which has a time horizon of 10 years and a required probability of success of 99%, Module B should be chosen because its 2.2% expected return is higher than the expected returns of all the other modules. The present value of Goal 2 is calculated as follows:

PV=$100,000/(1.022)1+$100,000(1.03)1/(1.022)2+$100,000(1.03)2/(1.022)3+...+$100,000(1.03)9/(1.022)10

PV = $1,013,670 (or $1.01 million)

So, approximately 12.7% of the total assets of $8 million (= $1.01 million/$8.00 million) should be allocated to Module B.

For Goal 3, which has a time horizon of 25 years and a required probability of success of 75%, Module D should be chosen because its 7.5% expected return is higher than the expected returns of all the other modules. The present value of
Goal 3 is calculated as follows:
N = 25, FV = –10,000,000, I/Y = 7.5%; CPT PV = $1,639,791 (or $1.64 million)
So, approximately 20.5% of the total assets of $8 million (= $1.64 million/$8.00 million) should be allocated to Module D.

Finally, the surplus of $1,315,032 (= $8,000,000 – $4,031,508 – $1,013,670 –$1,639,791), representing 16.4% (= $1.32 million/$8.00 million), should be invested in Module A following Abbott’s suggestion.

等比数列求和法是可以应用到所有此类带通胀的年金吗?是普适的简便计算法,还是偶尔用用的取巧法?反正考试遇上这种,心一急更算不出来先付年金。我打算只掌握等比数列可以吗?

1 个答案

Lucky_品职助教 · 2024年11月20日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


同学你好:


这道题考察的重点就是先付和后付年金的计算,所以关于先付和后付在计算器上不同的操作步骤,同学还是要掌握清楚的比较好。但是这个题的计算确实有难度,主要就是goal 2 ,是后付年金,并且,它的Inflation是从第二笔现金流才开始的,这就导致分子的(1+Inflation)和分母的(1+discount rate)的次方并不一致,所以之后不一样的算法,是一种简化算法,目的就是为了调整这个的,经过简化后,变成了一个先付年金的形式。具体方式就是,先假设1块钱为基础,去计算年金现值系数(P/A),算出来后,再去乘以每年10万的现金流。而0.9822是分子分母同时经过通胀和收益率调整后得到的一个系数,它并不是作为最终的折现率,而0.78才是。

而goal 1 是现付年金,第一笔现金流发生在0时刻,然后会从1时刻开始涉及到Inflation,所以之后每一期现金流的分子和分母都次方都是一样的,在这种情况下,分子用实际金额,然后分母的discount rate也调整成实际利率。

总结一下就是,goal 1和goal2 的计算逻辑是一样的,正常考试的时候,也肯定是goal 1 的出题方式概率会大一些,但是goal2 的难度就在于,它发生现金流,以及考虑Inflation的时间点有区别,导致分子的(1+Inflation)和分母的(1+discount rate)的次方并不一致,所以就需要先简化调整一下这个次方的问题,之后再按照原本的方式计算。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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