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梦梦 · 2024年11月12日

衍生品信用风险

NO.PZ2023091701000150

问题如下:

A risk analyst at a bank is calculating credit risk for various types of assets in the bank’s portfolio. The analyst begins by estimating the parameters used as inputs to these calculations, and encounters several challenges while doing so. Which of the following will the analyst find to be correct regarding the estimated inputs for credit risk calculations?

选项:

A.The probability of default of a derivative counterparty often increases as the bank’s exposure at default with respect to that derivative position increases.

B.The loss given default for a derivative transaction is typically negatively correlated with the counterparty’s probability of default.

C.Banks must make both through-the-cycle and point-in-time estimates of loss given default to comply with both regulatory requirements and accounting standards.

D.Current exposure is typically used to estimate exposure at default for a line of credit in order to provide a conservative estimate.

解释:

A is correct. This is what is termed wrong-way risk. This is the risk associated with the fact that a counterparty to a company may be more likely to default when the value of outstanding derivatives is negative to the counterparty (and therefore positive to the company).

B is incorrect. The loss given default is positively correlated with probability of default (recovery rate is negatively correlated with probability of default).

C is incorrect. Banks must make both through-the-cycle and point-in-time estimates of the probability of default, not the loss given default, to comply with both regulatory requirements and accounting standards.

D is incorrect. In the case of a line of credit, EAD can be conservatively estimated as the customer’s borrowing limit, not the current amount drawn down.

银行的风险敞口提高,对方的pd就一定提高吗?不一定吧,如果对方是赚钱的状态呢?

D选项能翻译一下吗?

3 个答案
已采纳答案

pzqa39 · 2024年11月14日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


第一次的问题是:银行的风险敞口提高,对方的pd就一定提高吗?

这个的回答是不一定


第二次的问题是:既然不一定,为什么A选项的说法是正确的,是不是因为A只是说“often”

我表达的意思是:是的,A选项中说的是often,也就是通常情况下,风险敞口提高,对方违约概率也提高。但是A选项并没有说一定,只是通常。


A选项通常是正确的是因为当公司处在账面浮盈(此时交易对手是账面浮亏)时,交易对手更有可能违约。这个说法本身是没问题的,比如我和你做了一笔交易,我做多棉花远期合约,你是做空棉花远期合约。棉花的价格一直在涨,我账面有很大的盈利,而你的账面是在亏钱的。此时由于还没到交割日,所以都是浮动盈利和亏损。但由于你有大额的账面亏损,你很可能一走了之直接违约,那么我虽然账面盈利很大,却无法从你那里兑现了。



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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

pzqa39 · 2024年11月13日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


对,它只是说通常情况下,并不是always这种绝对的表述

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加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!

梦梦 · 2024年11月13日

…那a为什么对,我就是不理解a为啥对,看了您的解释,更不理解了…

pzqa39 · 2024年11月12日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


D. 通常使用当前敞口来估计信用额度的违约敞口,以提供保守的估计。


对的,银行的风险敞口提高并不总是意味着对手方的违约概率一定会提高。

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

梦梦 · 2024年11月12日

那为啥选a是因为often?

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