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12345678wdv · 2024年11月11日

请问这里为什么可以直接直接乘以100 求surplus at risk

NO.PZ2023101902000037

问题如下:

An analyst reports the following fund information to the advisor of a pension fund that currently invests in government and corporate bonds and carries a surplus of USD 10 million.

To evaluate the sufficiency of the fund’s surplus, the advisor estimates the possible surplus values at the end of one year. The advisor assumes that annual returns on assets and the annual growth of the liabilities are jointly normally distributed and their correlation coefficient is 0.8. The advisor can report that, with a confidence level of 95%, the surplus value will be greater than or equal to:

选项:

A.USD -11.4 million B.USD -8.3 million C.USD -1.7 million D.USD 0 million

解释:

The lower bound of the 95% confidence interval is equal to: Expected Surplus – (95% confidence factor × Volatility of Surplus). The required variables can be calculated as follows: Variance of the surplus = 1002 × 10%2 + 902 × 5%2 – 2 × 100 × 90 × 10% × 5% × 0.8 = 48.25 Volatility of the surplus = 6.94 The expected surplus = 9.7 Therefore, the lower bound of the 95% confidence interval = 9.7 – 1.645 × 6.94 = -1.725

如题,不是要用权重来求的吗 100/(100+90),请问这个该怎么理解

1 个答案

pzqa39 · 2024年11月11日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


看题目要求什么,要求求出%的sigma就用%形式的公式,$形式就用$的公式。这道题给的选项都是金额。


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